Recent forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and analyses by Carbon Brief and Berkeley Earth indicate 2026 will likely finish second-warmest on record, behind 2024, as the long-term anthropogenic warming trend combines with a developing El Niño expected to emerge by mid-year. Current ENSO-neutral conditions, following a weak La Niña, are transitioning toward warmer Pacific sea surface temperatures that should elevate global anomalies above the 1.4°C pre-industrial threshold without fully surpassing 2024’s peak. This aligns with trader consensus favoring the second-hottest outcome at 57.5% implied probability, while the 35.5% chance for first reflects uncertainty in El Niño strength and late-year intensification that could push temperatures higher. Upcoming seasonal model updates will clarify whether the record holds or shifts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড2026 রেকর্ডের উষ্ণতম বছরগুলির মধ্যে কোথায় স্থান পাবে?
2026 রেকর্ডের উষ্ণতম বছরগুলির মধ্যে কোথায় স্থান পাবে?
২ 57%
১ 35%
৪ 2.8%
৬ বা কম 2.3%
$2,821,597 Vol.
$2,821,597 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
১
35%
২
57%
৩
2%
৪
3%
৫
1%
৬ বা কম
2%
২ 57%
১ 35%
৪ 2.8%
৬ বা কম 2.3%
$2,821,597 Vol.
$2,821,597 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
১
$453,744 Vol.
35%
২
$325,828 Vol.
57%
৩
$428,457 Vol.
2%
৪
$416,574 Vol.
3%
৫
$732,047 Vol.
1%
৬ বা কম
$464,948 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and analyses by Carbon Brief and Berkeley Earth indicate 2026 will likely finish second-warmest on record, behind 2024, as the long-term anthropogenic warming trend combines with a developing El Niño expected to emerge by mid-year. Current ENSO-neutral conditions, following a weak La Niña, are transitioning toward warmer Pacific sea surface temperatures that should elevate global anomalies above the 1.4°C pre-industrial threshold without fully surpassing 2024’s peak. This aligns with trader consensus favoring the second-hottest outcome at 57.5% implied probability, while the 35.5% chance for first reflects uncertainty in El Niño strength and late-year intensification that could push temperatures higher. Upcoming seasonal model updates will clarify whether the record holds or shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
ভলিউম
$2,821,597শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and analyses by Carbon Brief and Berkeley Earth indicate 2026 will likely finish second-warmest on record, behind 2024, as the long-term anthropogenic warming trend combines with a developing El Niño expected to emerge by mid-year. Current ENSO-neutral conditions, following a weak La Niña, are transitioning toward warmer Pacific sea surface temperatures that should elevate global anomalies above the 1.4°C pre-industrial threshold without fully surpassing 2024’s peak. This aligns with trader consensus favoring the second-hottest outcome at 57.5% implied probability, while the 35.5% chance for first reflects uncertainty in El Niño strength and late-year intensification that could push temperatures higher. Upcoming seasonal model updates will clarify whether the record holds or shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$2,821,597শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and analyses by Carbon Brief and Berkeley Earth indicate 2026 will likely finish second-warmest on record, behind 2024, as the long-term anthropogenic warming trend combines with a developing El Niño expected to emerge by mid-year. Current ENSO-neutral conditions, following a weak La Niña, are transitioning toward warmer Pacific sea surface temperatures that should elevate global anomalies above the 1.4°C pre-industrial threshold without fully surpassing 2024’s peak. This aligns with trader consensus favoring the second-hottest outcome at 57.5% implied probability, while the 35.5% chance for first reflects uncertainty in El Niño strength and late-year intensification that could push temperatures higher. Upcoming seasonal model updates will clarify whether the record holds or shifts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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