Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including recent limited strikes on Qeshm Island and reported Iranian actions against commercial vessels near Omani waters, continue to shape trader assessments of escalation risks. Iran has conducted qualifying strikes on Omani ports such as Duqm and Salalah since March 2026 as part of efforts to control shipping lanes and deter external naval presence. Parallel diplomatic talks between Tehran and Muscat focus on joint navigational corridors, mine clearance, and sovereignty over territorial waters under interim frameworks like the Islamabad MoU, with technical meetings advancing in recent weeks. These developments create competing pressures: sustained friction from the regional conflict versus incentives for Oman-mediated de-escalation ahead of any November resolution windows.