Iranian officials revived threats to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities in 2025, prompting parliamentary review of exit legislation in late March 2026. Despite these statements, Tehran has maintained IAEA safeguards at unaffected sites, submitted working papers to the ongoing 2026 NPT Review Conference in New York, and pursued diplomatic channels without issuing formal Article X notification. This pattern aligns with repeated rhetorical escalations since 2004 that have not produced actual withdrawal. Traders assign a 91.6 percent implied probability to no exit before 2027 because formal departure would heighten isolation and remove treaty-based legal standing for enrichment activities. Late-breaking escalations in regional tensions or collapse of current diplomatic proposals remain the primary factors that could still shift these odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$121,662 Vol.
$121,662 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$121,662 Vol.
$121,662 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials revived threats to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities in 2025, prompting parliamentary review of exit legislation in late March 2026. Despite these statements, Tehran has maintained IAEA safeguards at unaffected sites, submitted working papers to the ongoing 2026 NPT Review Conference in New York, and pursued diplomatic channels without issuing formal Article X notification. This pattern aligns with repeated rhetorical escalations since 2004 that have not produced actual withdrawal. Traders assign a 91.6 percent implied probability to no exit before 2027 because formal departure would heighten isolation and remove treaty-based legal standing for enrichment activities. Late-breaking escalations in regional tensions or collapse of current diplomatic proposals remain the primary factors that could still shift these odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
ভলিউম
$121,662শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials revived threats to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities in 2025, prompting parliamentary review of exit legislation in late March 2026. Despite these statements, Tehran has maintained IAEA safeguards at unaffected sites, submitted working papers to the ongoing 2026 NPT Review Conference in New York, and pursued diplomatic channels without issuing formal Article X notification. This pattern aligns with repeated rhetorical escalations since 2004 that have not produced actual withdrawal. Traders assign a 91.6 percent implied probability to no exit before 2027 because formal departure would heighten isolation and remove treaty-based legal standing for enrichment activities. Late-breaking escalations in regional tensions or collapse of current diplomatic proposals remain the primary factors that could still shift these odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$121,662শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian officials revived threats to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities in 2025, prompting parliamentary review of exit legislation in late March 2026. Despite these statements, Tehran has maintained IAEA safeguards at unaffected sites, submitted working papers to the ongoing 2026 NPT Review Conference in New York, and pursued diplomatic channels without issuing formal Article X notification. This pattern aligns with repeated rhetorical escalations since 2004 that have not produced actual withdrawal. Traders assign a 91.6 percent implied probability to no exit before 2027 because formal departure would heighten isolation and remove treaty-based legal standing for enrichment activities. Late-breaking escalations in regional tensions or collapse of current diplomatic proposals remain the primary factors that could still shift these odds.
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বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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