North Korea's long-standing pattern of missile tests, border provocations, and nuclear signaling without crossing into full-scale invasion has reinforced trader consensus that an attack on South Korea remains unlikely before 2027. The implied 96.3% probability for "No" reflects deterrence from the U.S.-South Korea alliance, extensive joint military exercises, and North Korea's focus on internal economic priorities and external partnerships with Russia and China. No major troop mobilizations or diplomatic breakdowns have materialized in recent months to shift this assessment. Realistic scenarios that could still alter odds include an accidental escalation during artillery exchanges, a sudden leadership transition in Pyongyang prompting risky action, or miscalculation amid intensified drills, though these remain low-probability events within the narrow remaining window.