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Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2027?

23% chance

US recession by end of 2026?

9% chance

Economy

Fed rate hike in 2026?

55%

chance

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

chance

Key Elections

Oct

Brazil

Presidential

64%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
28%
Flávio Bolsonaro
7%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado

Geopolitics

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

12%

chance

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

chance

Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2027?

23% chance

US recession by end of 2026?

9% chance

Economy

Fed rate hike in 2026?

55%

chance

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

chance

Key Elections

Oct

Brazil

Presidential

64%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
28%
Flávio Bolsonaro
7%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado

Geopolitics

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

12%

chance

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

chance