DASHBOARDS

Elections
Macro
Sports
Fed Rates
Trump

Elections
Macro
Sports
Fed Rates
Trump

Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2026?

22% chance

Economy

US bank failure by March 31?

28%

CHANCE

Fed rate hike in 2026?

13%

CHANCE

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

27%

CHANCE

Key Elections

Apr

Hungary

Prime Minister

55%
Péter Magyar
44%
Viktor Orbán
<1%
Klára Dobrev
<1%
László Toroczkai

Jan

Portugal

Presidential

37%
António José Seguro (IND)
31%
João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
19%
Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)
7%
Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)

Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

14%

CHANCE

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

60%

CHANCE

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

19%

CHANCE

Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2026?

22% chance

Economy

US bank failure by March 31?

28%

CHANCE

Fed rate hike in 2026?

13%

CHANCE

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

27%

CHANCE

Key Elections

Apr

Hungary

Prime Minister

55%
Péter Magyar
44%
Viktor Orbán
<1%
Klára Dobrev
<1%
László Toroczkai

Jan

Portugal

Presidential

37%
António José Seguro (IND)
31%
João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
19%
Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)
7%
Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)

Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

14%

CHANCE

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

60%

CHANCE

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

19%

CHANCE