Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object surveys have identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton atmospheric bolide in 2026, reinforcing the 98.3% market-implied odds for “No.” Historical impact rates place megaton-scale events at roughly once per several millennia, and refined orbital models plus ongoing sky surveys like Pan-STARRS confirm the absence of threats through year-end. Trader consensus reflects this verified data rather than speculation. While an undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculation could theoretically alter the outcome, both face steep observational and technical barriers with limited time remaining.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1 Megatonnen-Meteorschlag im Jahr 2026?
1 Megatonnen-Meteorschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
2% Chance
$116,717 Vol.
$116,717 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
2% Chance
$116,717 Vol.
$116,717 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object surveys have identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton atmospheric bolide in 2026, reinforcing the 98.3% market-implied odds for “No.” Historical impact rates place megaton-scale events at roughly once per several millennia, and refined orbital models plus ongoing sky surveys like Pan-STARRS confirm the absence of threats through year-end. Trader consensus reflects this verified data rather than speculation. While an undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculation could theoretically alter the outcome, both face steep observational and technical barriers with limited time remaining.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$116,717Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object surveys have identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton atmospheric bolide in 2026, reinforcing the 98.3% market-implied odds for “No.” Historical impact rates place megaton-scale events at roughly once per several millennia, and refined orbital models plus ongoing sky surveys like Pan-STARRS confirm the absence of threats through year-end. Trader consensus reflects this verified data rather than speculation. While an undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculation could theoretically alter the outcome, both face steep observational and technical barriers with limited time remaining.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$116,717Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object surveys have identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton atmospheric bolide in 2026, reinforcing the 98.3% market-implied odds for “No.” Historical impact rates place megaton-scale events at roughly once per several millennia, and refined orbital models plus ongoing sky surveys like Pan-STARRS confirm the absence of threats through year-end. Trader consensus reflects this verified data rather than speculation. While an undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculation could theoretically alter the outcome, both face steep observational and technical barriers with limited time remaining.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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