The Bank of England’s June 18 decision carries an 85.5% market-implied probability of no change at the current 3.75% Bank Rate, driven by the Monetary Policy Committee’s April 30 hold and the need to gauge the pass-through from Middle East energy price shocks that lifted March CPI inflation to 3.3%. While services inflation remains elevated and higher utility costs are expected later in 2026, a loosening labor market and limited evidence of second-round wage pressures have kept near-term tightening expectations contained, capping the probability of a 25 basis point hike at 14.5%. Traders continue to monitor incoming inflation prints and employment data for any shift in the MPC’s data-dependent stance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertEntscheidung der Bank of England im Juni?
Keine Änderung 86%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 15%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$144,980 Vol.
$144,980 Vol.
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung
86%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
15%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung 86%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 15%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$144,980 Vol.
$144,980 Vol.
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung
86%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
15%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of England’s June 18 decision carries an 85.5% market-implied probability of no change at the current 3.75% Bank Rate, driven by the Monetary Policy Committee’s April 30 hold and the need to gauge the pass-through from Middle East energy price shocks that lifted March CPI inflation to 3.3%. While services inflation remains elevated and higher utility costs are expected later in 2026, a loosening labor market and limited evidence of second-round wage pressures have kept near-term tightening expectations contained, capping the probability of a 25 basis point hike at 14.5%. Traders continue to monitor incoming inflation prints and employment data for any shift in the MPC’s data-dependent stance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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