Incumbent Democrat Dave Min's strong performance in California's June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured over 45 percent against a divided field, has reinforced trader expectations for a general election victory on November 3. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration and recent election results, combined with Min's established fundraising and name recognition, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm shift or late-cycle disruption, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such reversals before Election Day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCA-47 Wahlsieger
CA-47 Wahlsieger
$12,737 Vol.
$12,737 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
94%
Republikanische Partei
6%
$12,737 Vol.
$12,737 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$1,861 Vol.
94%
Republikanische Partei
$10,876 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min's strong performance in California's June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured over 45 percent against a divided field, has reinforced trader expectations for a general election victory on November 3. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration and recent election results, combined with Min's established fundraising and name recognition, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm shift or late-cycle disruption, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such reversals before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volumen
$12,737Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min's strong performance in California's June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured over 45 percent against a divided field, has reinforced trader expectations for a general election victory on November 3. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration and recent election results, combined with Min's established fundraising and name recognition, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm shift or late-cycle disruption, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such reversals before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$12,737Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Dave Min's strong performance in California's June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured over 45 percent against a divided field, has reinforced trader expectations for a general election victory on November 3. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration and recent election results, combined with Min's established fundraising and name recognition, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm shift or late-cycle disruption, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such reversals before Election Day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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