Recent polling in Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special election shows margins of three points or less between leading candidates, reflecting narrow partisan leans and strong nominee matchups that keep these contests among the tightest on the 2026 Senate map. Trader consensus on these states as the closest aligns with their positioning near the national average in swing-state fundamentals, limited polling movement over the past month, and absence of decisive late-cycle events. Key variables that could widen gaps include additional surveys clarifying turnout patterns among key voting blocs, candidate debates, or shifts in national conditions affecting battleground states. Markets treat these probabilities as crowd-sourced assessments of current dynamics rather than fixed outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertTexas 25%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 14.8%
$28,210 Vol.
$28,210 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Texas
25%
Iowa
22%
Maine
15%
Ohio (Special)
15%
Alaska
12%
Michigan
6%
Nebraska
5%
New Mexico
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Virginia
2%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
2%
Georgia
1%
Colorado
1%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
<1%
Texas 25%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 14.8%
$28,210 Vol.
$28,210 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Texas
$1,058 Vol.
25%
Iowa
$2,677 Vol.
22%
Maine
$1,285 Vol.
15%
Ohio (Special)
$5,040 Vol.
15%
Alaska
$5,272 Vol.
12%
Michigan
$2,490 Vol.
6%
Nebraska
$275 Vol.
5%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
2%
North Carolina
$621 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$752 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$662 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 Vol.
1%
Montana
$616 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling in Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special election shows margins of three points or less between leading candidates, reflecting narrow partisan leans and strong nominee matchups that keep these contests among the tightest on the 2026 Senate map. Trader consensus on these states as the closest aligns with their positioning near the national average in swing-state fundamentals, limited polling movement over the past month, and absence of decisive late-cycle events. Key variables that could widen gaps include additional surveys clarifying turnout patterns among key voting blocs, candidate debates, or shifts in national conditions affecting battleground states. Markets treat these probabilities as crowd-sourced assessments of current dynamics rather than fixed outcomes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volumen
$28,210Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling in Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special election shows margins of three points or less between leading candidates, reflecting narrow partisan leans and strong nominee matchups that keep these contests among the tightest on the 2026 Senate map. Trader consensus on these states as the closest aligns with their positioning near the national average in swing-state fundamentals, limited polling movement over the past month, and absence of decisive late-cycle events. Key variables that could widen gaps include additional surveys clarifying turnout patterns among key voting blocs, candidate debates, or shifts in national conditions affecting battleground states. Markets treat these probabilities as crowd-sourced assessments of current dynamics rather than fixed outcomes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$28,210Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special election shows margins of three points or less between leading candidates, reflecting narrow partisan leans and strong nominee matchups that keep these contests among the tightest on the 2026 Senate map. Trader consensus on these states as the closest aligns with their positioning near the national average in swing-state fundamentals, limited polling movement over the past month, and absence of decisive late-cycle events. Key variables that could widen gaps include additional surveys clarifying turnout patterns among key voting blocs, candidate debates, or shifts in national conditions affecting battleground states. Markets treat these probabilities as crowd-sourced assessments of current dynamics rather than fixed outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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