Trader consensus favors Doug Ford remaining Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader through December 31, 2026, at 84.5% implied probability on "No," driven by his February public reaffirmation of plans to seek a fourth term as premier amid stable party structures without a scheduled leadership review or contest. Recent polling declines, including PCs trailing Liberals for the first time in nearly a decade per April-May surveys and softening support tied to the reversed private jet purchase and freedom of information changes, have eroded favourability but failed to trigger internal challenges or calls for resignation from party ranks. With the next Ontario general election looming later this year, Ford's three prior majority victories provide incumbency advantages, outweighing current headwinds absent major scandals or procedural shifts.