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Politik·Weltwahlen

Gewinner der Parlamentswahl in Äthiopien

icon for Gewinner der Parlamentswahl in Äthiopien
Politik·Weltwahlen

Gewinner der Parlamentswahl in Äthiopien

Prosperity 97.8%

TPLF 1.1%

NaMA 1.0%

GPDP <1%

Polymarket
NEU

Prosperity 97.8%

TPLF 1.1%

NaMA 1.0%

GPDP <1%

Polymarket
NEU
icon for Prosperity

Prosperity

$3,655 Vol.

98%

icon for TPLF

TPLF

$1,160 Vol.

1%

icon for NaMA

NaMA

$1,515 Vol.

1%

icon for GPDP

GPDP

$1,764 Vol.

1%

icon for EZEMA

EZEMA

$1,030 Vol.

<1%

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Prosperity Party at 97.8% implied probability to win Ethiopia's parliamentary election on June 1, driven by its entrenched incumbency under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who secured 410 of 436 seats in 2021 amid fragmented opposition. Recent developments, including the National Election Board of Ethiopia's voter registration push despite expired deadlines and accusations of irregularities, alongside Prosperity Party campaign launches in February, reinforce this positioning, as regional conflicts in Amhara and Tigray regions sideline challengers like TPLF and limit participation. Diaspora protests decry the process as uncredible amid security concerns, yet no unified opposition surge has emerged. Scenarios challenging this include election postponement from escalating violence, a surprise coalition upset, or international sanctions altering turnout, though structural barriers remain high.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).
Volumen
$9,125
Enddatum
1. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 3:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Prosperity Party at 97.8% implied probability to win Ethiopia's parliamentary election on June 1, driven by its entrenched incumbency under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who secured 410 of 436 seats in 2021 amid fragmented opposition. Recent developments, including the National Election Board of Ethiopia's voter registration push despite expired deadlines and accusations of irregularities, alongside Prosperity Party campaign launches in February, reinforce this positioning, as regional conflicts in Amhara and Tigray regions sideline challengers like TPLF and limit participation. Diaspora protests decry the process as uncredible amid security concerns, yet no unified opposition surge has emerged. Scenarios challenging this include election postponement from escalating violence, a surprise coalition upset, or international sanctions altering turnout, though structural barriers remain high.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).
Volumen
$9,125
Enddatum
1. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 3:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Gewinner der Parlamentswahl in Äthiopien" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Prosperity" mit 98%, gefolgt von „TPLF" mit 1%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 98¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 98% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Gewinner der Parlamentswahl in Äthiopien" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Dec 16, 2025. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Gewinner der Parlamentswahl in Äthiopien" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 5 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Gewinner der Parlamentswahl in Äthiopien" ist „Prosperity" mit 98%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 98% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „TPLF" mit 1%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Gewinner der Parlamentswahl in Äthiopien" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.