Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 59% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly on October 5, driven by recent polls showing PQ tied or narrowly ahead of the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 28-32% vote share among decided voters, yet projection models like 338Canada awarding PQ a projected 62-seat majority due to superior strength in Quebec City and rural ridings under first-past-the-post rules. New May polls from Pallas Data and Synopsis confirm PQ's 29-30% edge among francophones at 35-38%, while the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) rebounds to 18-19% under new leader Christine Fréchette following François Legault's January resignation that cratered the incumbents. PLQ leader Charles Milliard's sliding approval caps their path, with PCQ, PVQ, and QS marginal despite minor conservative gains. Five months out, leadership momentum and regional dynamics sustain PQ's frontrunner status.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGewinner der Parlamentswahlen in Quebec
Gewinner der Parlamentswahlen in Quebec
PQ 59%
PLQ 29%
CAQ 12%
PCQ <1%
$502,555 Vol.
$502,555 Vol.

PQ
59%

PLQ
29%

CAQ
12%

PCQ
<1%

PVQ
<1%

QS
<1%
PQ 59%
PLQ 29%
CAQ 12%
PCQ <1%
$502,555 Vol.
$502,555 Vol.

PQ
59%

PLQ
29%

CAQ
12%

PCQ
<1%

PVQ
<1%

QS
<1%
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 59% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly on October 5, driven by recent polls showing PQ tied or narrowly ahead of the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 28-32% vote share among decided voters, yet projection models like 338Canada awarding PQ a projected 62-seat majority due to superior strength in Quebec City and rural ridings under first-past-the-post rules. New May polls from Pallas Data and Synopsis confirm PQ's 29-30% edge among francophones at 35-38%, while the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) rebounds to 18-19% under new leader Christine Fréchette following François Legault's January resignation that cratered the incumbents. PLQ leader Charles Milliard's sliding approval caps their path, with PCQ, PVQ, and QS marginal despite minor conservative gains. Five months out, leadership momentum and regional dynamics sustain PQ's frontrunner status.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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