Incumbent Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow declared her re-election bid in late May 2026 and has since strengthened her campaign by appointing a senior Liberal strategist as co-chair in July, aiming to broaden centrist support ahead of the October 26 vote. Trader consensus assigns her an 84.5% implied probability, reflecting her established position following the 2023 by-election victory and advantages typical for sitting mayors in municipal contests. City Councillor Brad Bradford trails at 15%, with limited recent momentum despite polling that occasionally shows a narrower gap, while other declared candidates such as Marco Mendicino and John Tory register negligible shares. The market pricing aligns with historical patterns favoring incumbents in Toronto races absent major late disruptions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOlivia Chow 85%
Brad Bradford 15%
Marco Mendicino 1.0%
John Tory <1%
$131,367 Vol.
$131,367 Vol.
Olivia Chow
85%
Brad Bradford
15%
Marco Mendicino
1%
John Tory
1%
Anthony Furey
<1%
Kevin Clarke
<1%
Ana Bailão
<1%
Michael Ford
<1%
Olivia Chow 85%
Brad Bradford 15%
Marco Mendicino 1.0%
John Tory <1%
$131,367 Vol.
$131,367 Vol.
Olivia Chow
85%
Brad Bradford
15%
Marco Mendicino
1%
John Tory
1%
Anthony Furey
<1%
Kevin Clarke
<1%
Ana Bailão
<1%
Michael Ford
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 1, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow declared her re-election bid in late May 2026 and has since strengthened her campaign by appointing a senior Liberal strategist as co-chair in July, aiming to broaden centrist support ahead of the October 26 vote. Trader consensus assigns her an 84.5% implied probability, reflecting her established position following the 2023 by-election victory and advantages typical for sitting mayors in municipal contests. City Councillor Brad Bradford trails at 15%, with limited recent momentum despite polling that occasionally shows a narrower gap, while other declared candidates such as Marco Mendicino and John Tory register negligible shares. The market pricing aligns with historical patterns favoring incumbents in Toronto races absent major late disruptions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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