Recent March 2026 CPI data showing a jump to 3.3% year-over-year, driven largely by energy prices, combined with resilient labor market conditions and core PCE forecasts holding above 2.5%, have reinforced trader consensus for the FOMC to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% through the March, May, and June meetings. This path aligns with the median dot plot projecting just one 25-basis-point cut later in 2026 amid balanced risks. Only a sharper-than-expected moderation in upcoming May inflation readings or a notable softening in employment data could realistically shift expectations toward any easing in this window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertPause–Pause–Pause 98.3%
Pause–Pause–Senkung 1.5%
Sonstiges <1%
$1,104,451 Vol.
$1,104,451 Vol.
17. Juni 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
98%
Pause–Pause–Senkung
1%
Sonstiges
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 98.3%
Pause–Pause–Senkung 1.5%
Sonstiges <1%
$1,104,451 Vol.
$1,104,451 Vol.
17. Juni 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$63,614 Vol.
98%
Pause–Pause–Senkung
$42,236 Vol.
1%
Sonstiges
$253,260 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent March 2026 CPI data showing a jump to 3.3% year-over-year, driven largely by energy prices, combined with resilient labor market conditions and core PCE forecasts holding above 2.5%, have reinforced trader consensus for the FOMC to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% through the March, May, and June meetings. This path aligns with the median dot plot projecting just one 25-basis-point cut later in 2026 amid balanced risks. Only a sharper-than-expected moderation in upcoming May inflation readings or a notable softening in employment data could realistically shift expectations toward any easing in this window.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,104,451Enddatum
17. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent March 2026 CPI data showing a jump to 3.3% year-over-year, driven largely by energy prices, combined with resilient labor market conditions and core PCE forecasts holding above 2.5%, have reinforced trader consensus for the FOMC to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% through the March, May, and June meetings. This path aligns with the median dot plot projecting just one 25-basis-point cut later in 2026 amid balanced risks. Only a sharper-than-expected moderation in upcoming May inflation readings or a notable softening in employment data could realistically shift expectations toward any easing in this window.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,104,451Enddatum
17. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent March 2026 CPI data showing a jump to 3.3% year-over-year, driven largely by energy prices, combined with resilient labor market conditions and core PCE forecasts holding above 2.5%, have reinforced trader consensus for the FOMC to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% through the March, May, and June meetings. This path aligns with the median dot plot projecting just one 25-basis-point cut later in 2026 amid balanced risks. Only a sharper-than-expected moderation in upcoming May inflation readings or a notable softening in employment data could realistically shift expectations toward any easing in this window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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