Recent economic data have tilted trader sentiment toward delayed or absent near-term Fed rate cuts, with the federal funds target range holding at 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 FOMC decision. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core eased to 2.5%, and a weak nonfarm payrolls report showed job losses, yet markets via CME FedWatch assign roughly 70% probability to no change at the September 15–16 meeting and price in a rising chance of a 25-basis-point hike by year-end. The June dot plot reflected a median 3.75–4.00% endpoint for 2026, underscoring persistent inflation concerns above the 2% target and a divided committee. Key catalysts ahead include September CPI, labor data, and FOMC minutes that could shift implied probabilities ahead of the October and December meetings.