Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in the July CPI release, above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient economy and solid productivity gains, has kept market-implied odds for a 2026 rate hike closely balanced near 50-50. The current federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% has held steady through five consecutive meetings, but the June dot plot showed a median projection for one hike by year-end, with futures pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of action as soon as September. Recent softening in nonfarm payrolls has tempered expectations, creating uncertainty around whether labor market cooling will outweigh sticky price pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI data due September 11, and subsequent employment reports that could shift the balance toward or away from tighter policy.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
47% Chance
$7,533,756 Vol.
$7,533,756 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Ja
47% Chance
$7,533,756 Vol.
$7,533,756 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in the July CPI release, above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient economy and solid productivity gains, has kept market-implied odds for a 2026 rate hike closely balanced near 50-50. The current federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% has held steady through five consecutive meetings, but the June dot plot showed a median projection for one hike by year-end, with futures pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of action as soon as September. Recent softening in nonfarm payrolls has tempered expectations, creating uncertainty around whether labor market cooling will outweigh sticky price pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI data due September 11, and subsequent employment reports that could shift the balance toward or away from tighter policy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$7,533,756Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in the July CPI release, above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient economy and solid productivity gains, has kept market-implied odds for a 2026 rate hike closely balanced near 50-50. The current federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% has held steady through five consecutive meetings, but the June dot plot showed a median projection for one hike by year-end, with futures pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of action as soon as September. Recent softening in nonfarm payrolls has tempered expectations, creating uncertainty around whether labor market cooling will outweigh sticky price pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI data due September 11, and subsequent employment reports that could shift the balance toward or away from tighter policy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,533,756Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in the July CPI release, above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient economy and solid productivity gains, has kept market-implied odds for a 2026 rate hike closely balanced near 50-50. The current federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% has held steady through five consecutive meetings, but the June dot plot showed a median projection for one hike by year-end, with futures pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of action as soon as September. Recent softening in nonfarm payrolls has tempered expectations, creating uncertainty around whether labor market cooling will outweigh sticky price pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI data due September 11, and subsequent employment reports that could shift the balance toward or away from tighter policy.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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