Recent softer inflation readings, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core easing to 2.5%, have tempered immediate hike expectations and contributed to the near-even odds on any 2026 rate increase. The June dot plot showed a 3.8% median federal funds rate projection for year-end 2026, with nine participants favoring levels above the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, reflecting concerns over inflation remaining above the 2% goal amid Middle East energy shocks. A divided FOMC, marked by dissents favoring hikes and a new chair withholding projections, adds uncertainty, while weak July jobs data reinforces caution. Traders will closely watch the September FOMC meeting and upcoming employment and CPI releases for signals that could shift the balance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
47% Chance
$7,535,640 Vol.
$7,535,640 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Ja
47% Chance
$7,535,640 Vol.
$7,535,640 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent softer inflation readings, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core easing to 2.5%, have tempered immediate hike expectations and contributed to the near-even odds on any 2026 rate increase. The June dot plot showed a 3.8% median federal funds rate projection for year-end 2026, with nine participants favoring levels above the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, reflecting concerns over inflation remaining above the 2% goal amid Middle East energy shocks. A divided FOMC, marked by dissents favoring hikes and a new chair withholding projections, adds uncertainty, while weak July jobs data reinforces caution. Traders will closely watch the September FOMC meeting and upcoming employment and CPI releases for signals that could shift the balance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$7,535,640Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent softer inflation readings, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core easing to 2.5%, have tempered immediate hike expectations and contributed to the near-even odds on any 2026 rate increase. The June dot plot showed a 3.8% median federal funds rate projection for year-end 2026, with nine participants favoring levels above the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, reflecting concerns over inflation remaining above the 2% goal amid Middle East energy shocks. A divided FOMC, marked by dissents favoring hikes and a new chair withholding projections, adds uncertainty, while weak July jobs data reinforces caution. Traders will closely watch the September FOMC meeting and upcoming employment and CPI releases for signals that could shift the balance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,535,640Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent softer inflation readings, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core easing to 2.5%, have tempered immediate hike expectations and contributed to the near-even odds on any 2026 rate increase. The June dot plot showed a 3.8% median federal funds rate projection for year-end 2026, with nine participants favoring levels above the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, reflecting concerns over inflation remaining above the 2% goal amid Middle East energy shocks. A divided FOMC, marked by dissents favoring hikes and a new chair withholding projections, adds uncertainty, while weak July jobs data reinforces caution. Traders will closely watch the September FOMC meeting and upcoming employment and CPI releases for signals that could shift the balance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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