Recent U.S. GDP data and policy shifts are anchoring trader views on 2026 growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 2.0 percent annualized advance in first-quarter 2026, driven by a surge in business investment tied to AI-related equipment and software, which lifted the pace from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent. Market-implied odds favor the 1.5–2.0 percent range at 43.2 percent over >2.5 percent at 35.5 percent because analysts see moderating consumer spending and tariff headwinds offsetting tax-cut stimulus and easier financial conditions. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs, S&P Global, and the Congressional Budget Office cluster near 2.0–2.2 percent for the full year, creating a tight contest where stronger capital spending or delayed tariff effects could push outcomes higher while labor-market cooling keeps downside risks in play.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertBIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026
BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026
<0,5 % 20.8%
2,0–2,5 % 19%
0,5–1,0 % 12.5%
1,0–1,5 % 12.0%
$28,267 Vol.
$28,267 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
21%
0,5–1,0 %
13%
1,0–1,5 %
12%
1,5–2,0 %
43%
2,0–2,5 %
22%
>2,5 %
34%
<0,5 % 20.8%
2,0–2,5 % 19%
0,5–1,0 % 12.5%
1,0–1,5 % 12.0%
$28,267 Vol.
$28,267 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
$3,906 Vol.
21%
0,5–1,0 %
$15,332 Vol.
13%
1,0–1,5 %
$1,562 Vol.
12%
1,5–2,0 %
$1,534 Vol.
43%
2,0–2,5 %
$1,846 Vol.
22%
>2,5 %
$4,088 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. GDP data and policy shifts are anchoring trader views on 2026 growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 2.0 percent annualized advance in first-quarter 2026, driven by a surge in business investment tied to AI-related equipment and software, which lifted the pace from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent. Market-implied odds favor the 1.5–2.0 percent range at 43.2 percent over >2.5 percent at 35.5 percent because analysts see moderating consumer spending and tariff headwinds offsetting tax-cut stimulus and easier financial conditions. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs, S&P Global, and the Congressional Budget Office cluster near 2.0–2.2 percent for the full year, creating a tight contest where stronger capital spending or delayed tariff effects could push outcomes higher while labor-market cooling keeps downside risks in play.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$28,267Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. GDP data and policy shifts are anchoring trader views on 2026 growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 2.0 percent annualized advance in first-quarter 2026, driven by a surge in business investment tied to AI-related equipment and software, which lifted the pace from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent. Market-implied odds favor the 1.5–2.0 percent range at 43.2 percent over >2.5 percent at 35.5 percent because analysts see moderating consumer spending and tariff headwinds offsetting tax-cut stimulus and easier financial conditions. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs, S&P Global, and the Congressional Budget Office cluster near 2.0–2.2 percent for the full year, creating a tight contest where stronger capital spending or delayed tariff effects could push outcomes higher while labor-market cooling keeps downside risks in play.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$28,267Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. GDP data and policy shifts are anchoring trader views on 2026 growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 2.0 percent annualized advance in first-quarter 2026, driven by a surge in business investment tied to AI-related equipment and software, which lifted the pace from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent. Market-implied odds favor the 1.5–2.0 percent range at 43.2 percent over >2.5 percent at 35.5 percent because analysts see moderating consumer spending and tariff headwinds offsetting tax-cut stimulus and easier financial conditions. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs, S&P Global, and the Congressional Budget Office cluster near 2.0–2.2 percent for the full year, creating a tight contest where stronger capital spending or delayed tariff effects could push outcomes higher while labor-market cooling keeps downside risks in play.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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