Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, seeking a third term, advanced through the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary with over 91% of the vote against limited challengers, while Republican Brenton Awa, Hawaii State Senate minority leader, secured his party's nomination. All major forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean—evident in the incumbent's 66.5% win in 2024 and Kamala Harris's 17.5-point margin there. The district encompasses rural and suburban Oahu plus the neighbor islands, areas that have favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats aligns with these fundamentals and historical patterns for incumbents in non-competitive seats. A late scandal, health issue, or national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's structural Democratic advantage.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHI-02 Wahlsieger
HI-02 Wahlsieger
$63,531 Vol.
$63,531 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
96%
Republikanische Partei
6%
$63,531 Vol.
$63,531 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$43,095 Vol.
96%
Republikanische Partei
$20,436 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, seeking a third term, advanced through the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary with over 91% of the vote against limited challengers, while Republican Brenton Awa, Hawaii State Senate minority leader, secured his party's nomination. All major forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean—evident in the incumbent's 66.5% win in 2024 and Kamala Harris's 17.5-point margin there. The district encompasses rural and suburban Oahu plus the neighbor islands, areas that have favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats aligns with these fundamentals and historical patterns for incumbents in non-competitive seats. A late scandal, health issue, or national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$63,531Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, seeking a third term, advanced through the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary with over 91% of the vote against limited challengers, while Republican Brenton Awa, Hawaii State Senate minority leader, secured his party's nomination. All major forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean—evident in the incumbent's 66.5% win in 2024 and Kamala Harris's 17.5-point margin there. The district encompasses rural and suburban Oahu plus the neighbor islands, areas that have favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats aligns with these fundamentals and historical patterns for incumbents in non-competitive seats. A late scandal, health issue, or national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$63,531Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, seeking a third term, advanced through the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary with over 91% of the vote against limited challengers, while Republican Brenton Awa, Hawaii State Senate minority leader, secured his party's nomination. All major forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean—evident in the incumbent's 66.5% win in 2024 and Kamala Harris's 17.5-point margin there. The district encompasses rural and suburban Oahu plus the neighbor islands, areas that have favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats aligns with these fundamentals and historical patterns for incumbents in non-competitive seats. A late scandal, health issue, or national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's structural Democratic advantage.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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