Official observations from the William P. Hobby Airport station recorded a daily maximum of 92-93°F on August 14, locking in the market-implied outcome at full consensus. This aligns with National Weather Service data showing limited daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, moderate humidity, and a sea breeze that capped afternoon temperatures below the seasonal average of 96°F. Traders weighed real-time station reports against ensemble model guidance, which had earlier projected slightly higher values before afternoon observations confirmed the lower peak. The outcome could shift only if post-event quality-control revisions or alternate station data alter the official reading, though such adjustments remain rare for this site.