Recent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon has produced persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms across Metro Manila, moderating solar insolation and keeping daytime maxima near the seasonal average of 30–31 °C. PAGASA guidance for 23 August projects a 60 % rain chance with highs of 32 °C, while ensemble model consensus and recent observations indicate that convective timing and boundary-layer moisture will likely hold the peak at or below 31 °C. ENSO-neutral conditions provide no strong anomalous warming signal, and historical August records show that frequent habagat rains rarely allow temperatures to reach 33 °C or higher. Market-implied odds clustering tightly between 30 °C and 31 °C therefore reflect traders’ assessment of this narrow forecast spread, with the modest premium on 32 °C acknowledging residual uncertainty in afternoon clearing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Manila am 23. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Manila am 23. August?
31°C 34%
30°C 31%
32°C 17%
33°C 6%
NEU
NEU
23. Aug. 2026
25°C oder niedriger
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
6%
29°C
6%
30°C
31%
31°C
34%
32°C
17%
33°C
6%
34°C
1%
35°C oder höher
1%
31°C 34%
30°C 31%
32°C 17%
33°C 6%
NEU
NEU
23. Aug. 2026
25°C oder niedriger
$176 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$80 Vol.
1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
1%
28°C
$52 Vol.
6%
29°C
$48 Vol.
6%
30°C
$73 Vol.
31%
31°C
$44 Vol.
34%
32°C
$26 Vol.
17%
33°C
$4 Vol.
6%
34°C
$2 Vol.
1%
35°C oder höher
$92 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon has produced persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms across Metro Manila, moderating solar insolation and keeping daytime maxima near the seasonal average of 30–31 °C. PAGASA guidance for 23 August projects a 60 % rain chance with highs of 32 °C, while ensemble model consensus and recent observations indicate that convective timing and boundary-layer moisture will likely hold the peak at or below 31 °C. ENSO-neutral conditions provide no strong anomalous warming signal, and historical August records show that frequent habagat rains rarely allow temperatures to reach 33 °C or higher. Market-implied odds clustering tightly between 30 °C and 31 °C therefore reflect traders’ assessment of this narrow forecast spread, with the modest premium on 32 °C acknowledging residual uncertainty in afternoon clearing.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 21, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volumen
$598Enddatum
23. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 21, 2026, 12:59 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon has produced persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms across Metro Manila, moderating solar insolation and keeping daytime maxima near the seasonal average of 30–31 °C. PAGASA guidance for 23 August projects a 60 % rain chance with highs of 32 °C, while ensemble model consensus and recent observations indicate that convective timing and boundary-layer moisture will likely hold the peak at or below 31 °C. ENSO-neutral conditions provide no strong anomalous warming signal, and historical August records show that frequent habagat rains rarely allow temperatures to reach 33 °C or higher. Market-implied odds clustering tightly between 30 °C and 31 °C therefore reflect traders’ assessment of this narrow forecast spread, with the modest premium on 32 °C acknowledging residual uncertainty in afternoon clearing.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$598Enddatum
23. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 21, 2026, 12:59 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon has produced persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms across Metro Manila, moderating solar insolation and keeping daytime maxima near the seasonal average of 30–31 °C. PAGASA guidance for 23 August projects a 60 % rain chance with highs of 32 °C, while ensemble model consensus and recent observations indicate that convective timing and boundary-layer moisture will likely hold the peak at or below 31 °C. ENSO-neutral conditions provide no strong anomalous warming signal, and historical August records show that frequent habagat rains rarely allow temperatures to reach 33 °C or higher. Market-implied odds clustering tightly between 30 °C and 31 °C therefore reflect traders’ assessment of this narrow forecast spread, with the modest premium on 32 °C acknowledging residual uncertainty in afternoon clearing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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