Forecast models from the Deutscher Wetterdienst and ECMWF ensembles currently point to a daily maximum near 16°C in Munich, driven by moderate high pressure, light northerly flow, and partial cloud cover that restricts daytime heating while maintaining temperatures above seasonal averages. This consensus positions the 16°C outcome as the market leader at 46.5% implied probability, with 15°C and 17°C close behind due to uncertainties in afternoon cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Historical mid-May climatology for the region shows typical highs of 16–18°C, making the current setup align closely with baseline expectations rather than extremes. Traders are monitoring the latest model runs and observational data ahead of the day's peak reading.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in München am 17. Mai?
16°C 44%
15°C 34%
17°C 21%
14°C 2.5%
$19,240 Vol.
$19,240 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
3%
15°C
34%
16°C
44%
17°C
21%
18°C
3%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 44%
15°C 34%
17°C 21%
14°C 2.5%
$19,240 Vol.
$19,240 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
3%
15°C
34%
16°C
44%
17°C
21%
18°C
3%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMForecast models from the Deutscher Wetterdienst and ECMWF ensembles currently point to a daily maximum near 16°C in Munich, driven by moderate high pressure, light northerly flow, and partial cloud cover that restricts daytime heating while maintaining temperatures above seasonal averages. This consensus positions the 16°C outcome as the market leader at 46.5% implied probability, with 15°C and 17°C close behind due to uncertainties in afternoon cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Historical mid-May climatology for the region shows typical highs of 16–18°C, making the current setup align closely with baseline expectations rather than extremes. Traders are monitoring the latest model runs and observational data ahead of the day's peak reading.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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