Latest numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration indicate Wuhan’s May 17 maximum will likely reach 28–29 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. A modest risk of afternoon showers could suppress peak heating and introduce the narrow uncertainty reflected in the closely matched market probabilities for those two outcomes. Mid-May climatology places typical highs near 28 °C, so current guidance sits close to seasonal norms with limited potential for stronger warming or cooling. Traders are closely monitoring the next model runs and satellite-derived cloud trends, as even modest shifts in timing or coverage of any precipitation could nudge the official maximum across the 28–29 °C threshold before the observation window closes.