Recent forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and numerical models point to a daytime high near 28–30 °C for Taipei on 18 September, with partly cloudy skies, light northeast monsoon flow, and a low chance of drizzle that could limit afternoon heating. Traders have placed the strongest implied probability on 31 °C (42.5 %) and 32 °C (25.5 %), consistent with the upper end of guidance when skies clear enough for stronger insolation. Persistent easterly winds and elevated humidity favor modest suppression of the daily maximum relative to drier September analogs, while any reduction in cloud cover or delayed shower timing could push readings toward the higher end of the distribution. Updated CWA briefings and afternoon model runs over the next 48 hours will refine the precise peak before market resolution.