Global seismicity data from the USGS indicate that M6.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly 1–2 per week worldwide, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along major subduction zones and transform faults. With no active aftershock sequences, volcanic unrest, or large foreshock clusters reported through May 16, trader sentiment has converged on a single qualifying event as the most likely outcome for the May 11–17 window. Current USGS catalogs show no additional M6.5+ activity in the period to date, keeping the probability of two or more events below 25% combined. The final day offers limited scope for rapid intensification of seismic rates absent an unexpected mainshock, reinforcing the market-implied odds for exactly one event.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
1 75%
2 22%
3 3.9%
0 <1%
$43,694 Vol.
$43,694 Vol.
17. Mai 2026
0
1%
1
75%
2
22%
3
4%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
1 75%
2 22%
3 3.9%
0 <1%
$43,694 Vol.
$43,694 Vol.
17. Mai 2026
0
$30,451 Vol.
1%
1
$3,483 Vol.
75%
2
$1,788 Vol.
22%
3
$1,538 Vol.
4%
4
$3,435 Vol.
<1%
5
$1,420 Vol.
<1%
>5
$1,579 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity data from the USGS indicate that M6.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly 1–2 per week worldwide, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along major subduction zones and transform faults. With no active aftershock sequences, volcanic unrest, or large foreshock clusters reported through May 16, trader sentiment has converged on a single qualifying event as the most likely outcome for the May 11–17 window. Current USGS catalogs show no additional M6.5+ activity in the period to date, keeping the probability of two or more events below 25% combined. The final day offers limited scope for rapid intensification of seismic rates absent an unexpected mainshock, reinforcing the market-implied odds for exactly one event.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ET
Volumen
$43,694Enddatum
17. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity data from the USGS indicate that M6.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly 1–2 per week worldwide, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along major subduction zones and transform faults. With no active aftershock sequences, volcanic unrest, or large foreshock clusters reported through May 16, trader sentiment has converged on a single qualifying event as the most likely outcome for the May 11–17 window. Current USGS catalogs show no additional M6.5+ activity in the period to date, keeping the probability of two or more events below 25% combined. The final day offers limited scope for rapid intensification of seismic rates absent an unexpected mainshock, reinforcing the market-implied odds for exactly one event.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$43,694Enddatum
17. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity data from the USGS indicate that M6.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly 1–2 per week worldwide, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along major subduction zones and transform faults. With no active aftershock sequences, volcanic unrest, or large foreshock clusters reported through May 16, trader sentiment has converged on a single qualifying event as the most likely outcome for the May 11–17 window. Current USGS catalogs show no additional M6.5+ activity in the period to date, keeping the probability of two or more events below 25% combined. The final day offers limited scope for rapid intensification of seismic rates absent an unexpected mainshock, reinforcing the market-implied odds for exactly one event.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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