Recent severe weather outbreaks, including an early-May event in the Southeast and Midwest activity through May 13, have pushed the preliminary 2026 May tornado count toward the 1991–2020 NOAA average of roughly 265. High convective available potential energy (CAPE) values above 2,000 J/kg combined with strong wind shear from the jet stream and Gulf moisture have favored supercell development, though an eastward shift in peak activity away from traditional Tornado Alley and lingering El Niño effects have tempered southern Plains totals. With over two weeks remaining and model consensus showing variable steering patterns, traders see comparable odds for outcomes near or slightly below this climatological baseline. SPC outlooks and updated preliminary reports through late May will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHow many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
260–289 40%
230–259 39%
200–229 38%
320–349 12%
NEU
NEU
8. Juni 2026
<200
37%
200–229
38%
230–259
39%
260–289
40%
290–319
11%
320–349
12%
350–379
10%
380–410
9%
410+
10%
260–289 40%
230–259 39%
200–229 38%
320–349 12%
NEU
NEU
8. Juni 2026
<200
$215 Vol.
37%
200–229
$0 Vol.
38%
230–259
$0 Vol.
39%
260–289
$0 Vol.
40%
290–319
$0 Vol.
11%
320–349
$0 Vol.
12%
350–379
$0 Vol.
10%
380–410
$0 Vol.
9%
410+
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent severe weather outbreaks, including an early-May event in the Southeast and Midwest activity through May 13, have pushed the preliminary 2026 May tornado count toward the 1991–2020 NOAA average of roughly 265. High convective available potential energy (CAPE) values above 2,000 J/kg combined with strong wind shear from the jet stream and Gulf moisture have favored supercell development, though an eastward shift in peak activity away from traditional Tornado Alley and lingering El Niño effects have tempered southern Plains totals. With over two weeks remaining and model consensus showing variable steering patterns, traders see comparable odds for outcomes near or slightly below this climatological baseline. SPC outlooks and updated preliminary reports through late May will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
Volumen
$215Enddatum
8. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent severe weather outbreaks, including an early-May event in the Southeast and Midwest activity through May 13, have pushed the preliminary 2026 May tornado count toward the 1991–2020 NOAA average of roughly 265. High convective available potential energy (CAPE) values above 2,000 J/kg combined with strong wind shear from the jet stream and Gulf moisture have favored supercell development, though an eastward shift in peak activity away from traditional Tornado Alley and lingering El Niño effects have tempered southern Plains totals. With over two weeks remaining and model consensus showing variable steering patterns, traders see comparable odds for outcomes near or slightly below this climatological baseline. SPC outlooks and updated preliminary reports through late May will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$215Enddatum
8. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent severe weather outbreaks, including an early-May event in the Southeast and Midwest activity through May 13, have pushed the preliminary 2026 May tornado count toward the 1991–2020 NOAA average of roughly 265. High convective available potential energy (CAPE) values above 2,000 J/kg combined with strong wind shear from the jet stream and Gulf moisture have favored supercell development, though an eastward shift in peak activity away from traditional Tornado Alley and lingering El Niño effects have tempered southern Plains totals. With over two weeks remaining and model consensus showing variable steering patterns, traders see comparable odds for outcomes near or slightly below this climatological baseline. SPC outlooks and updated preliminary reports through late May will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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