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Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

icon for Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?
Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

0 (0 Basispunkte) 70.2%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 16%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 7%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 2.6%

Polymarket

$26,955,347 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte) 70.2%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 16%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 7%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 2.6%

Polymarket

$26,955,347 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte)

$4,189,277 Vol.

70%

1 (25 Basispunkte)

$1,245,194 Vol.

16%

2 (50 Basispunkte)

$1,204,668 Vol.

7%

3 (75 Basispunkte)

$1,114,221 Vol.

3%

4 (100 Basispunkte)

$1,197,260 Vol.

1%

5 (125 Basispunkte)

$1,419,171 Vol.

1%

6 (150 Basispunkte)

$2,495,934 Vol.

1%

7 (175 Basispunkte)

$1,325,837 Vol.

<1%

8 (200 Basispunkte)

$1,736,206 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 Basispunkte)

$2,456,873 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 Basispunkte)

$3,125,756 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 Basispunkte)

$3,276,964 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ Basispunkte)

$2,168,133 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy-price increases from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for zero federal funds rate cuts this year. With the target range held steady at 3.50–3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and major banks such as BofA and Goldman Sachs now projecting no easing until late 2026 or 2027, market-implied odds of 70.3% for zero cuts reflect broad consensus that resilient labor-market data and above-target price pressures will keep the Fed on hold. CME FedWatch futures similarly price roughly 71% probability of no change through year-end. The next key catalysts remain the June FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases, which could shift these probabilities if energy costs moderate or the labor market weakens materially.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$26,955,347
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy-price increases from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for zero federal funds rate cuts this year. With the target range held steady at 3.50–3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and major banks such as BofA and Goldman Sachs now projecting no easing until late 2026 or 2027, market-implied odds of 70.3% for zero cuts reflect broad consensus that resilient labor-market data and above-target price pressures will keep the Fed on hold. CME FedWatch futures similarly price roughly 71% probability of no change through year-end. The next key catalysts remain the June FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases, which could shift these probabilities if energy costs moderate or the labor market weakens materially.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$26,955,347
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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