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Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

icon for Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?
Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

0 (0 Basispunkte) 70.5%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 16%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 7%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 2.7%

Polymarket

$26,919,445 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte) 70.5%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 16%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 7%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 2.7%

Polymarket

$26,919,445 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte)

$4,188,529 Vol.

71%

1 (25 Basispunkte)

$1,244,767 Vol.

16%

2 (50 Basispunkte)

$1,204,248 Vol.

7%

3 (75 Basispunkte)

$1,113,801 Vol.

3%

4 (100 Basispunkte)

$1,196,046 Vol.

1%

5 (125 Basispunkte)

$1,417,689 Vol.

1%

6 (150 Basispunkte)

$2,489,493 Vol.

1%

7 (175 Basispunkte)

$1,324,033 Vol.

<1%

8 (200 Basispunkte)

$1,733,051 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 Basispunkte)

$2,454,875 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 Basispunkte)

$3,122,848 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 Basispunkte)

$3,273,722 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ Basispunkte)

$2,157,284 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data, including the April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest level since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader consensus around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. With the target range held at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and major brokerages such as BofA now projecting the first possible easing only in 2027, market-implied odds reflect skepticism that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target this year. Resilient labor market conditions and solid economic growth further support this positioning, though incoming June CPI and subsequent FOMC decisions could still introduce volatility in the implied rate path.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$26,919,445
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data, including the April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest level since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader consensus around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. With the target range held at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and major brokerages such as BofA now projecting the first possible easing only in 2027, market-implied odds reflect skepticism that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target this year. Resilient labor market conditions and solid economic growth further support this positioning, though incoming June CPI and subsequent FOMC decisions could still introduce volatility in the implied rate path.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$26,919,445
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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