Skip to main content
icon for Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?
Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

icon for Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?
Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

0 (0 Basispunkte) 70.5%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 16%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 7%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 2.7%

Polymarket

$26,921,204 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte) 70.5%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 16%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 7%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 2.7%

Polymarket

$26,921,204 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte)

$4,188,540 Vol.

71%

1 (25 Basispunkte)

$1,244,767 Vol.

16%

2 (50 Basispunkte)

$1,204,248 Vol.

7%

3 (75 Basispunkte)

$1,113,801 Vol.

3%

4 (100 Basispunkte)

$1,196,177 Vol.

1%

5 (125 Basispunkte)

$1,417,689 Vol.

1%

6 (150 Basispunkte)

$2,489,880 Vol.

1%

7 (175 Basispunkte)

$1,324,074 Vol.

<1%

8 (200 Basispunkte)

$1,733,248 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 Basispunkte)

$2,454,875 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 Basispunkte)

$3,123,377 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 Basispunkte)

$3,273,723 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ Basispunkte)

$2,157,367 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict and hotter-than-expected CPI readings have driven the market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Recent data showing resilient labor market conditions and rising energy prices have prompted brokerages including BofA to push back any easing until 2027, while CME FedWatch futures now assign roughly 60% probability to a potential 25 basis point hike by early 2027. This pricing aligns with the Fed’s April hold decision and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s cautious stance amid persistent price risks. Upcoming FOMC meetings and June inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further entrench or modestly adjust these probabilities if labor market or energy trends shift.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$26,921,204
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict and hotter-than-expected CPI readings have driven the market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Recent data showing resilient labor market conditions and rising energy prices have prompted brokerages including BofA to push back any easing until 2027, while CME FedWatch futures now assign roughly 60% probability to a potential 25 basis point hike by early 2027. This pricing aligns with the Fed’s April hold decision and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s cautious stance amid persistent price risks. Upcoming FOMC meetings and June inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further entrench or modestly adjust these probabilities if labor market or energy trends shift.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$26,921,204
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 13 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „0 (0 Basispunkte)" mit 71%, gefolgt von „1 (25 Basispunkte)" mit 16%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 71¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 71% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $26.9 million generiert, seit der Markt am Sep 29, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 13 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?" ist „0 (0 Basispunkte)" mit 71%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 71% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „1 (25 Basispunkte)" mit 16%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.