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Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

icon for Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?
Economy·Business

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

0 (0 Basispunkte) 71.0%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 16%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 7%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 2.7%

Polymarket

$26,863,334 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte) 71.0%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 16%

2 (50 Basispunkte) 7%

3 (75 Basispunkte) 2.7%

Polymarket

$26,863,334 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte)

$4,184,818 Vol.

71%

1 (25 Basispunkte)

$1,244,245 Vol.

16%

2 (50 Basispunkte)

$1,203,687 Vol.

7%

3 (75 Basispunkte)

$1,113,699 Vol.

3%

4 (100 Basispunkte)

$1,194,165 Vol.

2%

5 (125 Basispunkte)

$1,414,810 Vol.

1%

6 (150 Basispunkte)

$2,483,494 Vol.

1%

7 (175 Basispunkte)

$1,322,069 Vol.

<1%

8 (200 Basispunkte)

$1,725,652 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 Basispunkte)

$2,449,306 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 Basispunkte)

$3,115,543 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 Basispunkte)

$3,262,984 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ Basispunkte)

$2,148,940 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Market-implied odds assign a 71% probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven primarily by elevated inflation risks from higher energy prices tied to ongoing Middle East tensions. The central bank has maintained its target range at 3.50%-3.75% through recent FOMC meetings, with March 2026 economic projections showing a median endpoint near 3.4% but markets now diverging toward a firmer hold stance. Resilient labor market data and cautious Fed communications have reinforced trader expectations for a higher-for-longer policy path, as incoming inflation and employment figures continue to shape the balance of risks. Upcoming releases on consumer prices and payrolls through mid-2026 remain key catalysts that could shift these aggregated probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$26,863,334
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Market-implied odds assign a 71% probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven primarily by elevated inflation risks from higher energy prices tied to ongoing Middle East tensions. The central bank has maintained its target range at 3.50%-3.75% through recent FOMC meetings, with March 2026 economic projections showing a median endpoint near 3.4% but markets now diverging toward a firmer hold stance. Resilient labor market data and cautious Fed communications have reinforced trader expectations for a higher-for-longer policy path, as incoming inflation and employment figures continue to shape the balance of risks. Upcoming releases on consumer prices and payrolls through mid-2026 remain key catalysts that could shift these aggregated probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$26,863,334
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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