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Politik·US-Wahl

Wie viele republikanische Abgeordnete werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?

icon for Wie viele republikanische Abgeordnete werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?
Politik·US-Wahl

Wie viele republikanische Abgeordnete werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?

36–39 80.5%

40–43 6.0%

<24 2.9%

44+ 2.8%

Polymarket

$71,662 Vol.

36–39 80.5%

40–43 6.0%

<24 2.9%

44+ 2.8%

Polymarket

$71,662 Vol.

<24

$6,241 Vol.

3%

24–27

$20,139 Vol.

2%

28–31

$23,623 Vol.

1%

32–35

$6,149 Vol.

1%

36–39

$8,123 Vol.

80%

40–43

$3,846 Vol.

6%

44+

$3,541 Vol.

3%

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, according to Ballotpedia and aligned trackers, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that commands over 79% market probability. This elevated figure reflects a combination of members retiring outright, pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids, and a broader wave of departures in the 119th Congress amid narrow majorities and midterm headwinds for the president’s party. Recent additions and confirmations through summer have kept the count stable near the upper end of historical midterm norms, with limited further announcements expected before filing deadlines close. The market’s tight clustering around 36–39 captures trader consensus on the final verified total once primaries and formal withdrawals conclude.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$71,662
Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, according to Ballotpedia and aligned trackers, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that commands over 79% market probability. This elevated figure reflects a combination of members retiring outright, pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids, and a broader wave of departures in the 119th Congress amid narrow majorities and midterm headwinds for the president’s party. Recent additions and confirmations through summer have kept the count stable near the upper end of historical midterm norms, with limited further announcements expected before filing deadlines close. The market’s tight clustering around 36–39 captures trader consensus on the final verified total once primaries and formal withdrawals conclude.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$71,662
Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Anzahl der republikanischen Senatsmitglieder, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, genau 7 betragen?

Wird die Anzahl der republikanischen Senatsmitglieder, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, genau 7 betragen?

77%
Ja
icon for Wird die Anzahl der demokratischen Mitglieder des Repräsentantenhauses, die 2026 zurücktreten, zwischen 20 und 23 liegen (einschließlich)?

Wird die Anzahl der demokratischen Mitglieder des Repräsentantenhauses, die 2026 zurücktreten, zwischen 20 und 23 liegen (einschließlich)?

45%
Ja
icon for Werden amtierende Republikaner im Repräsentantenhaus in der Wahlrunde 2026 in vier bis sechs Vorwahlen nicht gewinnen?

Werden amtierende Republikaner im Repräsentantenhaus in der Wahlrunde 2026 in vier bis sechs Vorwahlen nicht gewinnen?

93%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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„Wie viele republikanische Abgeordnete werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „36–39" mit 80%, gefolgt von „40–43" mit 6%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 80¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 80% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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