Skip to main content
icon for Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?
Politik·Kongress

Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?

icon for Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?
Politik·Kongress

Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?

20–23 41.0%

24–27 39%

32–35 12.1%

28–31 9.7%

Polymarket

$44,502 Vol.

20–23 41.0%

24–27 39%

32–35 12.1%

28–31 9.7%

Polymarket

$44,502 Vol.

<20

$17,793 Vol.

8%

20–23

$9,735 Vol.

41%

24–27

$7,505 Vol.

39%

28–31

$1,924 Vol.

10%

32–35

$4,526 Vol.

7%

36–39

$1,348 Vol.

1%

40+

$1,671 Vol.

1%

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the total near the boundary between the two leading market buckets. This figure reflects a mix of full retirements and bids for Senate or gubernatorial offices, consistent with patterns seen in prior cycles where institutional frustration and term limits drive turnover. Additional announcements remain possible ahead of varying state filing deadlines, while some districts have already advanced to primaries. The narrow spread between 20–23 and 24–27 outcomes shows traders assigning roughly equal weight to the chance of a handful of late decisions versus the current pace of disclosures holding steady. Key variables include health-related exits, redistricting effects in certain states, and shifts in the broader midterm environment that could encourage or deter further departures.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$44,502
Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the total near the boundary between the two leading market buckets. This figure reflects a mix of full retirements and bids for Senate or gubernatorial offices, consistent with patterns seen in prior cycles where institutional frustration and term limits drive turnover. Additional announcements remain possible ahead of varying state filing deadlines, while some districts have already advanced to primaries. The narrow spread between 20–23 and 24–27 outcomes shows traders assigning roughly equal weight to the chance of a handful of late decisions versus the current pace of disclosures holding steady. Key variables include health-related exits, redistricting effects in certain states, and shifts in the broader midterm environment that could encourage or deter further departures.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$44,502
Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Zahl der republikanischen Mitglieder des Repräsentantenhauses, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, zwischen 36 und 39 liegen (einschließlich)?

Wird die Zahl der republikanischen Mitglieder des Repräsentantenhauses, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, zwischen 36 und 39 liegen (einschließlich)?

84%
Ja
icon for Wird die Anzahl der republikanischen Senatsmitglieder, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, genau 7 betragen?

Wird die Anzahl der republikanischen Senatsmitglieder, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, genau 7 betragen?

77%
Ja
icon for Werden demokratische Abgeordnete im Repräsentantenhaus bei den Vorwahlen im Wahlzyklus 2026 in nicht zwischen zehn und zwölf Fällen gewinnen?

Werden demokratische Abgeordnete im Repräsentantenhaus bei den Vorwahlen im Wahlzyklus 2026 in nicht zwischen zehn und zwölf Fällen gewinnen?

50%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „20–23" mit 41%, gefolgt von „24–27" mit 39%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 41¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 41% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $44.5K generiert, seit der Markt am Dec 12, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 7 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?" ist „20–23" mit 41%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 41% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „24–27" mit 39%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.