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icon for Wie viele republikanische Senatoren treten 2026 nicht an?
Wahlen·Kongress

Wie viele republikanische Senatoren treten 2026 nicht an?

icon for Wie viele republikanische Senatoren treten 2026 nicht an?
Wahlen·Kongress

Wie viele republikanische Senatoren treten 2026 nicht an?

7 77%

11 8.3%

9 4.8%

5 3.4%

Polymarket

$101,009 Vol.

7 77%

11 8.3%

9 4.8%

5 3.4%

Polymarket

$101,009 Vol.

<5

$22,734 Vol.

1%

5

$17,485 Vol.

3%

6

$27,247 Vol.

1%

7

$16,967 Vol.

77%

8

$4,602 Vol.

1%

9

$2,208 Vol.

5%

10

$1,839 Vol.

2%

11

$2,845 Vol.

8%

12+

$5,082 Vol.

1%

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, establishing the current confirmed total and driving the dominant 77.5% market probability for that exact outcome.** Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tracking as of July–August 2026 list the seven Republicans alongside four Democrats among the eleven total Senate incumbents stepping aside. Key announcements include Thom Tillis (NC, June 2025), Joni Ernst (IA, September 2025), Cynthia Lummis (WY, December 2025), Steve Daines (MT, March 2026), and Alan Armstrong (OK, March 2026), with Mitch McConnell (KY) also confirmed among the group. No additional Republican retirements have been announced in the past several weeks, and filing deadlines plus primary schedules have not yet prompted further departures. Traders price lower-probability alternatives such as 11 (8.8%) or 9 (4.2%) to reflect the modest chance of one or two more exits before the cycle closes, consistent with historical patterns of late-cycle decisions. The market reflects trader consensus on the final headcount of GOP senators choosing not to appear on the 2026 ballot.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$101,009
Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, establishing the current confirmed total and driving the dominant 77.5% market probability for that exact outcome.** Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tracking as of July–August 2026 list the seven Republicans alongside four Democrats among the eleven total Senate incumbents stepping aside. Key announcements include Thom Tillis (NC, June 2025), Joni Ernst (IA, September 2025), Cynthia Lummis (WY, December 2025), Steve Daines (MT, March 2026), and Alan Armstrong (OK, March 2026), with Mitch McConnell (KY) also confirmed among the group. No additional Republican retirements have been announced in the past several weeks, and filing deadlines plus primary schedules have not yet prompted further departures. Traders price lower-probability alternatives such as 11 (8.8%) or 9 (4.2%) to reflect the modest chance of one or two more exits before the cycle closes, consistent with historical patterns of late-cycle decisions. The market reflects trader consensus on the final headcount of GOP senators choosing not to appear on the 2026 ballot.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$101,009
Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Zahl der republikanischen Mitglieder des Repräsentantenhauses, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, zwischen 36 und 39 liegen (einschließlich)?

Wird die Zahl der republikanischen Mitglieder des Repräsentantenhauses, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, zwischen 36 und 39 liegen (einschließlich)?

84%
Ja
icon for Wird die Zahl der demokratischen Mitglieder des Repräsentantenhauses, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, zwischen 24 und 27 liegen (einschließlich)?

Wird die Zahl der demokratischen Mitglieder des Repräsentantenhauses, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, zwischen 24 und 27 liegen (einschließlich)?

31%
Ja
icon for Werden alle amtierenden demokratischen Senatoren in der Wahlrunde 2026 ihre Nominierungswahlen gewinnen?

Werden alle amtierenden demokratischen Senatoren in der Wahlrunde 2026 ihre Nominierungswahlen gewinnen?

79%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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„Wie viele republikanische Senatoren treten 2026 nicht an?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 9 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „7" mit 77%, gefolgt von „11" mit 8%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 77¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 77% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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