Ongoing Houthi attacks and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked traffic have kept Bab el-Mandeb volumes suppressed near recent weekly AIS counts of 200–223, driving the tight contest between the 180–199 and 200–219 bins. Escalating strikes, including the mid-August incident that killed crew members, have prompted more vessels to transit dark or reroute via the Cape, while major carriers conditionally resumed Suez services amid sharply higher war-risk premiums. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over the precise share of non-AIS movements and any last-minute volume rebound or further disruption ahead of week-end resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 24. August?
180-199 36%
200-219 31%
220+ 17%
160-179 14%
$17,045 Vol.
$17,045 Vol.
<160
6%
160-179
14%
180-199
36%
200-219
31%
220+
17%
180-199 36%
200-219 31%
220+ 17%
160-179 14%
$17,045 Vol.
$17,045 Vol.
<160
6%
160-179
14%
180-199
36%
200-219
31%
220+
17%
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Houthi attacks and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked traffic have kept Bab el-Mandeb volumes suppressed near recent weekly AIS counts of 200–223, driving the tight contest between the 180–199 and 200–219 bins. Escalating strikes, including the mid-August incident that killed crew members, have prompted more vessels to transit dark or reroute via the Cape, while major carriers conditionally resumed Suez services amid sharply higher war-risk premiums. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over the precise share of non-AIS movements and any last-minute volume rebound or further disruption ahead of week-end resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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