**Trader consensus heavily favors 170-189 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but constrained volumes amid ongoing Houthi threats.** Recent maritime intelligence shows daily crossings typically ranging 30–50 vessels, with weekly aggregates in prior periods landing between roughly 250–300 before adjustments for dark (AIS-off) transits that obscure precise counts. Persistent attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage, including the late-August strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, have sustained elevated war-risk premia and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, particularly for container ships, while tankers and bulkers maintain more resilient flows. Market-implied odds embed the “skin-in-the-game” assessment that volumes will remain near recent averages without a full strait closure or sharp escalation. A material drop below 170 would require intensified attacks or broader carrier pullouts, while upside surprises above 210 remain unlikely absent rapid de-escalation and restored AIS visibility.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 31. August?
Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 31. August?
170-189 96.0%
190-209 9.7%
210-229 9.7%
<170 7.9%
$38,972 Vol.
$38,972 Vol.
6. Sep. 2026
<170
Nein
170-189
Ja
190-209
Nein
210-229
Nein
230+
Nein
170-189 96.0%
190-209 9.7%
210-229 9.7%
<170 7.9%
$38,972 Vol.
$38,972 Vol.
6. Sep. 2026
<170
$1,634 Vol.
Nein
170-189
$4,913 Vol.
Ja
190-209
$6,177 Vol.
Nein
210-229
$10,404 Vol.
Nein
230+
$15,845 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader consensus heavily favors 170-189 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but constrained volumes amid ongoing Houthi threats.** Recent maritime intelligence shows daily crossings typically ranging 30–50 vessels, with weekly aggregates in prior periods landing between roughly 250–300 before adjustments for dark (AIS-off) transits that obscure precise counts. Persistent attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage, including the late-August strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, have sustained elevated war-risk premia and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, particularly for container ships, while tankers and bulkers maintain more resilient flows. Market-implied odds embed the “skin-in-the-game” assessment that volumes will remain near recent averages without a full strait closure or sharp escalation. A material drop below 170 would require intensified attacks or broader carrier pullouts, while upside surprises above 210 remain unlikely absent rapid de-escalation and restored AIS visibility.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volumen
$38,972Enddatum
6. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader consensus heavily favors 170-189 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but constrained volumes amid ongoing Houthi threats.** Recent maritime intelligence shows daily crossings typically ranging 30–50 vessels, with weekly aggregates in prior periods landing between roughly 250–300 before adjustments for dark (AIS-off) transits that obscure precise counts. Persistent attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage, including the late-August strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, have sustained elevated war-risk premia and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, particularly for container ships, while tankers and bulkers maintain more resilient flows. Market-implied odds embed the “skin-in-the-game” assessment that volumes will remain near recent averages without a full strait closure or sharp escalation. A material drop below 170 would require intensified attacks or broader carrier pullouts, while upside surprises above 210 remain unlikely absent rapid de-escalation and restored AIS visibility.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$38,972Enddatum
6. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
**Trader consensus heavily favors 170-189 transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but constrained volumes amid ongoing Houthi threats.** Recent maritime intelligence shows daily crossings typically ranging 30–50 vessels, with weekly aggregates in prior periods landing between roughly 250–300 before adjustments for dark (AIS-off) transits that obscure precise counts. Persistent attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage, including the late-August strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, have sustained elevated war-risk premia and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, particularly for container ships, while tankers and bulkers maintain more resilient flows. Market-implied odds embed the “skin-in-the-game” assessment that volumes will remain near recent averages without a full strait closure or sharp escalation. A material drop below 170 would require intensified attacks or broader carrier pullouts, while upside surprises above 210 remain unlikely absent rapid de-escalation and restored AIS visibility.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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