Iran has repeatedly struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz through IRGC naval and missile operations, including drone and projectile attacks on UAE-owned tankers as recently as mid-August 2026, alongside Houthi actions in the Bab al-Mandeb. These incidents follow earlier July exchanges that triggered U.S. strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, radars, and maritime assets, as well as the breakdown of interim transit understandings. Reduced shipping traffic reflects persistent risks from mines, warnings, and kinetic interdictions, while U.S. responses and Iranian threats to target regional energy infrastructure sustain volatility. Trader assessments weigh Iran's demonstrated capacity for selective strikes against potential further U.S. or allied countermeasures and any renewed diplomatic channels.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$153,182 Vol.
14. Aug. 2026
15. August
8%
16. August
50%
17. August
25%
18. August
15%
19. August
16%
August 20
11%
21. August
17%
22. August
17%
August 23
17%
24. August
14%
25. August
14%
26. August
13%
27. August
14%
August 28
10%
29. August
11%
30. August
13%
31. August
8%
$153,182 Vol.
15. August
$6,857 Vol.
8%
16. August
$2,698 Vol.
50%
17. August
$675 Vol.
25%
18. August
$507 Vol.
15%
19. August
$3,786 Vol.
16%
August 20
$1,097 Vol.
11%
21. August
$1,211 Vol.
17%
22. August
$524 Vol.
17%
August 23
$2,950 Vol.
17%
24. August
$6,258 Vol.
14%
25. August
$116 Vol.
14%
26. August
$768 Vol.
13%
27. August
$408 Vol.
14%
August 28
$762 Vol.
10%
29. August
$1,418 Vol.
11%
30. August
$240 Vol.
13%
31. August
$1,038 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran has repeatedly struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz through IRGC naval and missile operations, including drone and projectile attacks on UAE-owned tankers as recently as mid-August 2026, alongside Houthi actions in the Bab al-Mandeb. These incidents follow earlier July exchanges that triggered U.S. strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, radars, and maritime assets, as well as the breakdown of interim transit understandings. Reduced shipping traffic reflects persistent risks from mines, warnings, and kinetic interdictions, while U.S. responses and Iranian threats to target regional energy infrastructure sustain volatility. Trader assessments weigh Iran's demonstrated capacity for selective strikes against potential further U.S. or allied countermeasures and any renewed diplomatic channels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volumen
$153,182Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Umstritten
Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Umstritten
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran has repeatedly struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz through IRGC naval and missile operations, including drone and projectile attacks on UAE-owned tankers as recently as mid-August 2026, alongside Houthi actions in the Bab al-Mandeb. These incidents follow earlier July exchanges that triggered U.S. strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, radars, and maritime assets, as well as the breakdown of interim transit understandings. Reduced shipping traffic reflects persistent risks from mines, warnings, and kinetic interdictions, while U.S. responses and Iranian threats to target regional energy infrastructure sustain volatility. Trader assessments weigh Iran's demonstrated capacity for selective strikes against potential further U.S. or allied countermeasures and any renewed diplomatic channels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volumen
$153,182Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Umstritten
Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Umstritten
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
Iran has repeatedly struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz through IRGC naval and missile operations, including drone and projectile attacks on UAE-owned tankers as recently as mid-August 2026, alongside Houthi actions in the Bab al-Mandeb. These incidents follow earlier July exchanges that triggered U.S. strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, radars, and maritime assets, as well as the breakdown of interim transit understandings. Reduced shipping traffic reflects persistent risks from mines, warnings, and kinetic interdictions, while U.S. responses and Iranian threats to target regional energy infrastructure sustain volatility. Trader assessments weigh Iran's demonstrated capacity for selective strikes against potential further U.S. or allied countermeasures and any renewed diplomatic channels.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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