Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through route restrictions, warnings, and strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels remain the central driver of this market. Following the breakdown of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps forces conducted multiple attacks on tankers in July, prompting U.S. responses and renewed shipping disruptions. As of mid-August 2026, bilateral talks with Oman on traffic management continue at a critical stage, while an Iran-backed Houthi strike in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on August 12 resulted in fatalities and extended regional maritime risks. Traders weigh these enforcement actions and diplomatic signals against the potential for de-escalation or further kinetic incidents that could resolve the date-specific outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$156,402 Vol.
17. Aug. 2026
15. August
3%
16. August
10%
17. August
23%
18. August
14%
19. August
13%
August 20
14%
21. August
12%
22. August
14%
August 23
13%
24. August
14%
25. August
15%
26. August
14%
27. August
12%
August 28
14%
29. August
17%
30. August
13%
31. August
13%
$156,402 Vol.
15. August
$6,863 Vol.
3%
16. August
$3,243 Vol.
10%
17. August
$710 Vol.
23%
18. August
$514 Vol.
14%
19. August
$3,991 Vol.
13%
August 20
$1,557 Vol.
14%
21. August
$1,259 Vol.
12%
22. August
$545 Vol.
14%
August 23
$3,009 Vol.
13%
24. August
$6,259 Vol.
14%
25. August
$116 Vol.
15%
26. August
$768 Vol.
14%
27. August
$408 Vol.
12%
August 28
$1,252 Vol.
14%
29. August
$2,033 Vol.
17%
30. August
$240 Vol.
13%
31. August
$1,767 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through route restrictions, warnings, and strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels remain the central driver of this market. Following the breakdown of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps forces conducted multiple attacks on tankers in July, prompting U.S. responses and renewed shipping disruptions. As of mid-August 2026, bilateral talks with Oman on traffic management continue at a critical stage, while an Iran-backed Houthi strike in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on August 12 resulted in fatalities and extended regional maritime risks. Traders weigh these enforcement actions and diplomatic signals against the potential for de-escalation or further kinetic incidents that could resolve the date-specific outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volumen
$156,402Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through route restrictions, warnings, and strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels remain the central driver of this market. Following the breakdown of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps forces conducted multiple attacks on tankers in July, prompting U.S. responses and renewed shipping disruptions. As of mid-August 2026, bilateral talks with Oman on traffic management continue at a critical stage, while an Iran-backed Houthi strike in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on August 12 resulted in fatalities and extended regional maritime risks. Traders weigh these enforcement actions and diplomatic signals against the potential for de-escalation or further kinetic incidents that could resolve the date-specific outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volumen
$156,402Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through route restrictions, warnings, and strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels remain the central driver of this market. Following the breakdown of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps forces conducted multiple attacks on tankers in July, prompting U.S. responses and renewed shipping disruptions. As of mid-August 2026, bilateral talks with Oman on traffic management continue at a critical stage, while an Iran-backed Houthi strike in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on August 12 resulted in fatalities and extended regional maritime risks. Traders weigh these enforcement actions and diplomatic signals against the potential for de-escalation or further kinetic incidents that could resolve the date-specific outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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