Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple strikes and interceptions on commercial vessels, including oil tankers, in the Strait of Hormuz throughout July and early August 2026, often citing unauthorized routes or violations of designated corridors. These actions follow a June memorandum of understanding and subsequent ceasefire with the United States, yet reports document at least five post-agreement attacks plus additional warning shots and halts. U.S. naval escorts, route enforcement, and port restrictions have prompted Iranian warnings of targeting non-compliant warships or maintaining pressure on transit. Trader sentiment reflects these repeated maritime incidents, alongside risks of renewed U.S. strikes or diplomatic talks that could alter patterns of disruption through the key chokepoint.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$151,082 Vol.
18. Aug. 2026
15. August
11%
16. August
40%
17. August
18%
18. August
23%
19. August
15%
August 20
16%
21. August
16%
22. August
23%
August 23
16%
24. August
14%
25. August
37%
26. August
29%
27. August
33%
August 28
10%
29. August
11%
30. August
12%
31. August
8%
$151,082 Vol.
15. August
$6,821 Vol.
11%
16. August
$1,934 Vol.
40%
17. August
$596 Vol.
18%
18. August
$459 Vol.
23%
19. August
$3,352 Vol.
15%
August 20
$695 Vol.
16%
21. August
$1,141 Vol.
16%
22. August
$472 Vol.
23%
August 23
$2,938 Vol.
16%
24. August
$6,258 Vol.
14%
25. August
$90 Vol.
37%
26. August
$760 Vol.
29%
27. August
$342 Vol.
33%
August 28
$734 Vol.
10%
29. August
$1,393 Vol.
11%
30. August
$240 Vol.
12%
31. August
$988 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple strikes and interceptions on commercial vessels, including oil tankers, in the Strait of Hormuz throughout July and early August 2026, often citing unauthorized routes or violations of designated corridors. These actions follow a June memorandum of understanding and subsequent ceasefire with the United States, yet reports document at least five post-agreement attacks plus additional warning shots and halts. U.S. naval escorts, route enforcement, and port restrictions have prompted Iranian warnings of targeting non-compliant warships or maintaining pressure on transit. Trader sentiment reflects these repeated maritime incidents, alongside risks of renewed U.S. strikes or diplomatic talks that could alter patterns of disruption through the key chokepoint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volumen
$151,082Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple strikes and interceptions on commercial vessels, including oil tankers, in the Strait of Hormuz throughout July and early August 2026, often citing unauthorized routes or violations of designated corridors. These actions follow a June memorandum of understanding and subsequent ceasefire with the United States, yet reports document at least five post-agreement attacks plus additional warning shots and halts. U.S. naval escorts, route enforcement, and port restrictions have prompted Iranian warnings of targeting non-compliant warships or maintaining pressure on transit. Trader sentiment reflects these repeated maritime incidents, alongside risks of renewed U.S. strikes or diplomatic talks that could alter patterns of disruption through the key chokepoint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volumen
$151,082Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple strikes and interceptions on commercial vessels, including oil tankers, in the Strait of Hormuz throughout July and early August 2026, often citing unauthorized routes or violations of designated corridors. These actions follow a June memorandum of understanding and subsequent ceasefire with the United States, yet reports document at least five post-agreement attacks plus additional warning shots and halts. U.S. naval escorts, route enforcement, and port restrictions have prompted Iranian warnings of targeting non-compliant warships or maintaining pressure on transit. Trader sentiment reflects these repeated maritime incidents, alongside risks of renewed U.S. strikes or diplomatic talks that could alter patterns of disruption through the key chokepoint.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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