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icon for KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory
Politik·Vorwahlen

KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory

icon for KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory
Politik·Vorwahlen

KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory

Gallrein 6-9% 29%

Massie <3% 26%

Gallrein <3% 25%

Massie 6%+ 25%

Polymarket
NEU

Gallrein 6-9% 29%

Massie <3% 26%

Gallrein <3% 25%

Massie 6%+ 25%

Polymarket
NEU

Gallrein 9%+

$188 Vol.

21%

Gallrein 6-9%

$65 Vol.

29%

Gallrein 3-6%

$20 Vol.

15%

Gallrein <3%

$20 Vol.

25%

Massie <3%

$20 Vol.

26%

Massie 3-6%

$20 Vol.

28%

Massie 6%+

$20 Vol.

25%

Other

$227 Vol.

4%

The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026 This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.In the Kentucky Fourth Congressional District Republican primary, trader consensus shows multiple margin-of-victory outcomes for incumbent Thomas Massie and challenger Gallrein each priced at 46.5 percent, underscoring a tight race with limited separation. This positioning reflects the absence of recent polling averages or high-profile endorsements that would clarify voter preferences among primary participants in the solidly Republican district. Massie’s established positions on fiscal restraint and foreign policy continue to resonate with core supporters, while Gallrein’s campaign emphasizes local issues and a fresh alternative. Developments such as candidate debates, shifts in early voting turnout, or last-minute endorsements from state officials could expand one candidate’s lead and realign probabilities ahead of primary day.

The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$581
Enddatum
19. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026 This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026 This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.In the Kentucky Fourth Congressional District Republican primary, trader consensus shows multiple margin-of-victory outcomes for incumbent Thomas Massie and challenger Gallrein each priced at 46.5 percent, underscoring a tight race with limited separation. This positioning reflects the absence of recent polling averages or high-profile endorsements that would clarify voter preferences among primary participants in the solidly Republican district. Massie’s established positions on fiscal restraint and foreign policy continue to resonate with core supporters, while Gallrein’s campaign emphasizes local issues and a fresh alternative. Developments such as candidate debates, shifts in early voting turnout, or last-minute endorsements from state officials could expand one candidate’s lead and realign probabilities ahead of primary day.

The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$581
Enddatum
19. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026 This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 8 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Gallrein 6-9%" mit 28%, gefolgt von „Massie 3-6%" mit 28%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 28¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 28% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am May 18, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory" ist „Gallrein 6-9%" mit 28%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 28% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Massie 3-6%" mit 28%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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