Recent forecast guidance from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international models shows nighttime lows in Guangzhou clustering around 26–27°C for August 22 amid persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate rainfall that limit radiative cooling. High humidity and light easterly winds further moderate overnight temperature drops, consistent with typical late-August conditions where average lows hover near 26°C. Model spreads arise mainly from varying precipitation timing and intensity, creating the tight market split between the two leading outcomes while keeping lower or higher readings at single-digit probabilities. Updated model runs and local observatory briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.