Persistent southwest monsoon flow and a broad low-pressure trough are sustaining high humidity and frequent cloud cover over northern Taiwan, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and anchoring overnight lows near 25–27°C for Taipei on August 22. Central Weather Administration guidance and ensemble guidance from global models show minimum temperatures clustered in this narrow band, with 26°C and 27°C emerging as the most probable outcomes given typical urban heat-island effects and dew points remaining above 25°C. Recent model runs have shown little shift in this range, keeping trader consensus tightly matched among the leading bins while assigning low probability to cooler or warmer extremes that would require atypical clear-sky or stronger advection scenarios.