Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a 25°C daily minimum on May 15 under a stable subtropical ridge and light overnight winds that limited radiational cooling. These conditions produced typical May nighttime temperatures without the clear skies or calm air needed for greater heat loss, anchoring trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the exact 25°C outcome. Historical May lows in Hong Kong cluster between 23°C and 27°C depending on monsoon timing and cloud cover, providing climatological support for this result. A realistic shift toward 24°C would have required improbable pre-dawn clearing and reduced humidity, factors absent from the verified data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 100.0%
18°C oder darunter <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$65,353 Vol.
$65,353 Vol.
18°C oder darunter
Nein
19°C
Nein
20°C
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C
Nein
23°C
Nein
24°C
Nein
25°C
Ja
26°C
Nein
27°C
Nein
28°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
18°C oder darunter <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$65,353 Vol.
$65,353 Vol.
18°C oder darunter
Nein
19°C
Nein
20°C
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C
Nein
23°C
Nein
24°C
Nein
25°C
Ja
26°C
Nein
27°C
Nein
28°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a 25°C daily minimum on May 15 under a stable subtropical ridge and light overnight winds that limited radiational cooling. These conditions produced typical May nighttime temperatures without the clear skies or calm air needed for greater heat loss, anchoring trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the exact 25°C outcome. Historical May lows in Hong Kong cluster between 23°C and 27°C depending on monsoon timing and cloud cover, providing climatological support for this result. A realistic shift toward 24°C would have required improbable pre-dawn clearing and reduced humidity, factors absent from the verified data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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