The dominant market-implied probability of 96.4% for a cumulative U.S. flu hospitalization rate of 85–90 per 100,000 through Week 19 reflects CDC FluSurv-NET data showing the season’s trajectory stabilizing near 85.2 by Week 15, with weekly laboratory-confirmed rates falling to 0.5 per 100,000 amid sharply reduced transmission. Ensemble forecasts from FluSight indicate national hospital admissions will continue declining through late May, adding minimal new cases as activity drops below baseline. Historical patterns for late-spring weeks support limited further accumulation, while the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets aggregates real-capital assessments of these trends. An unexpected late-season resurgence or revised surveillance adjustments could push the final cumulative figure outside 85–90, though current model consensus assigns low likelihood to such shifts before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 19, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 19, 2026?
85–90 96.0%
<80 1.0%
80–85 1.0%
95–100 <1%
NEU
NEU
22. Mai 2026
<80
1%
80–85
1%
85–90
96%
90–95
<1%
95–100
1%
100+
1%
85–90 96.0%
<80 1.0%
80–85 1.0%
95–100 <1%
NEU
NEU
22. Mai 2026
<80
$758 Vol.
1%
80–85
$2,258 Vol.
1%
85–90
$1,135 Vol.
96%
90–95
$340 Vol.
<1%
95–100
$465 Vol.
1%
100+
$381 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.The dominant market-implied probability of 96.4% for a cumulative U.S. flu hospitalization rate of 85–90 per 100,000 through Week 19 reflects CDC FluSurv-NET data showing the season’s trajectory stabilizing near 85.2 by Week 15, with weekly laboratory-confirmed rates falling to 0.5 per 100,000 amid sharply reduced transmission. Ensemble forecasts from FluSight indicate national hospital admissions will continue declining through late May, adding minimal new cases as activity drops below baseline. Historical patterns for late-spring weeks support limited further accumulation, while the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets aggregates real-capital assessments of these trends. An unexpected late-season resurgence or revised surveillance adjustments could push the final cumulative figure outside 85–90, though current model consensus assigns low likelihood to such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Markt eröffnet: May 14, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volumen
$5,338Enddatum
22. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 14, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.The dominant market-implied probability of 96.4% for a cumulative U.S. flu hospitalization rate of 85–90 per 100,000 through Week 19 reflects CDC FluSurv-NET data showing the season’s trajectory stabilizing near 85.2 by Week 15, with weekly laboratory-confirmed rates falling to 0.5 per 100,000 amid sharply reduced transmission. Ensemble forecasts from FluSight indicate national hospital admissions will continue declining through late May, adding minimal new cases as activity drops below baseline. Historical patterns for late-spring weeks support limited further accumulation, while the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets aggregates real-capital assessments of these trends. An unexpected late-season resurgence or revised surveillance adjustments could push the final cumulative figure outside 85–90, though current model consensus assigns low likelihood to such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volumen
$5,338Enddatum
22. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 14, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant market-implied probability of 96.4% for a cumulative U.S. flu hospitalization rate of 85–90 per 100,000 through Week 19 reflects CDC FluSurv-NET data showing the season’s trajectory stabilizing near 85.2 by Week 15, with weekly laboratory-confirmed rates falling to 0.5 per 100,000 amid sharply reduced transmission. Ensemble forecasts from FluSight indicate national hospital admissions will continue declining through late May, adding minimal new cases as activity drops below baseline. Historical patterns for late-spring weeks support limited further accumulation, while the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets aggregates real-capital assessments of these trends. An unexpected late-season resurgence or revised surveillance adjustments could push the final cumulative figure outside 85–90, though current model consensus assigns low likelihood to such shifts before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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