Forecast models from sources like GFS and local agencies indicate a minimum temperature in Madrid on August 29 likely ranging 14–17°C under clear skies, light northeasterly or variable winds, and dry air favoring moderate nocturnal radiative cooling from an afternoon high near 28–30°C. This positions 13–15°C outcomes as scientifically plausible based on current consensus runs, while the elevated 43.5% implied probability on 11°C or below reflects trader weighting of model spread, potential for localized cold pockets in urban or elevated sites, and historical precedent for occasional cooler August nights. No major synoptic shifts such as cold advection or increased cloud cover are projected in the next 24–48 hours, keeping resolution thresholds centered on official observatory readings with limited upside risk above 16°C.