**Forecast model divergence on synoptic patterns is the main driver behind the spread in implied probabilities for Cape Town's August 28 maximum temperature.** Multiple global and regional models currently project highs ranging from the upper teens to mid-20s °C, producing the observed market distribution with 22°C leading at 29% followed closely by 23°C (18%) and 21°C (17.5%). Recent runs show variability tied to the strength and timing of northerly flow versus cooler southwesterly influences, plus cloud cover that modulates daytime heating. Historical August maxima in Cape Town average near 17–18°C, so the elevated trader weighting on 21–23°C outcomes reflects current signals for above-normal warmth from transient ridging or reduced marine layer influence. Lower-probability bins (20°C and below at ~26% combined) capture scenarios with stronger onshore flow or increased stratus, while the 25°C+ tail (14%) accounts for stronger adiabatic warming under clear, northerly conditions. Key variables include evolving 500 hPa heights, surface pressure gradients over the Benguela Current region, and boundary-layer moisture—factors that can shift the daily peak by several degrees in ensemble spreads. With resolution approaching in ~48 hours, updates from the South African Weather Service and major models will likely narrow the distribution as new observational data arrives.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Kapstadt am 28. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Kapstadt am 28. August?
22°C 28%
23°C 19%
21°C 17%
20°C 12%
NEU
NEU
28. Aug. 2026
15°C oder weniger
1%
16°C
7%
17°C
3%
18°C
9%
19°C
10%
20°C
12%
21°C
17%
22°C
28%
23°C
19%
24°C
9%
25°C oder höher
11%
22°C 28%
23°C 19%
21°C 17%
20°C 12%
NEU
NEU
28. Aug. 2026
15°C oder weniger
$22 Vol.
1%
16°C
$22 Vol.
7%
17°C
$20 Vol.
3%
18°C
$20 Vol.
9%
19°C
$0 Vol.
10%
20°C
$0 Vol.
12%
21°C
$0 Vol.
17%
22°C
$0 Vol.
28%
23°C
$0 Vol.
19%
24°C
$0 Vol.
9%
25°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model divergence on synoptic patterns is the main driver behind the spread in implied probabilities for Cape Town's August 28 maximum temperature.** Multiple global and regional models currently project highs ranging from the upper teens to mid-20s °C, producing the observed market distribution with 22°C leading at 29% followed closely by 23°C (18%) and 21°C (17.5%). Recent runs show variability tied to the strength and timing of northerly flow versus cooler southwesterly influences, plus cloud cover that modulates daytime heating.
Historical August maxima in Cape Town average near 17–18°C, so the elevated trader weighting on 21–23°C outcomes reflects current signals for above-normal warmth from transient ridging or reduced marine layer influence. Lower-probability bins (20°C and below at ~26% combined) capture scenarios with stronger onshore flow or increased stratus, while the 25°C+ tail (14%) accounts for stronger adiabatic warming under clear, northerly conditions.
Key variables include evolving 500 hPa heights, surface pressure gradients over the Benguela Current region, and boundary-layer moisture—factors that can shift the daily peak by several degrees in ensemble spreads. With resolution approaching in ~48 hours, updates from the South African Weather Service and major models will likely narrow the distribution as new observational data arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 26, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volumen
$84Enddatum
28. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 12:58 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model divergence on synoptic patterns is the main driver behind the spread in implied probabilities for Cape Town's August 28 maximum temperature.** Multiple global and regional models currently project highs ranging from the upper teens to mid-20s °C, producing the observed market distribution with 22°C leading at 29% followed closely by 23°C (18%) and 21°C (17.5%). Recent runs show variability tied to the strength and timing of northerly flow versus cooler southwesterly influences, plus cloud cover that modulates daytime heating.
Historical August maxima in Cape Town average near 17–18°C, so the elevated trader weighting on 21–23°C outcomes reflects current signals for above-normal warmth from transient ridging or reduced marine layer influence. Lower-probability bins (20°C and below at ~26% combined) capture scenarios with stronger onshore flow or increased stratus, while the 25°C+ tail (14%) accounts for stronger adiabatic warming under clear, northerly conditions.
Key variables include evolving 500 hPa heights, surface pressure gradients over the Benguela Current region, and boundary-layer moisture—factors that can shift the daily peak by several degrees in ensemble spreads. With resolution approaching in ~48 hours, updates from the South African Weather Service and major models will likely narrow the distribution as new observational data arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$84Enddatum
28. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 12:58 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast model divergence on synoptic patterns is the main driver behind the spread in implied probabilities for Cape Town's August 28 maximum temperature.** Multiple global and regional models currently project highs ranging from the upper teens to mid-20s °C, producing the observed market distribution with 22°C leading at 29% followed closely by 23°C (18%) and 21°C (17.5%). Recent runs show variability tied to the strength and timing of northerly flow versus cooler southwesterly influences, plus cloud cover that modulates daytime heating. Historical August maxima in Cape Town average near 17–18°C, so the elevated trader weighting on 21–23°C outcomes reflects current signals for above-normal warmth from transient ridging or reduced marine layer influence. Lower-probability bins (20°C and below at ~26% combined) capture scenarios with stronger onshore flow or increased stratus, while the 25°C+ tail (14%) accounts for stronger adiabatic warming under clear, northerly conditions. Key variables include evolving 500 hPa heights, surface pressure gradients over the Benguela Current region, and boundary-layer moisture—factors that can shift the daily peak by several degrees in ensemble spreads. With resolution approaching in ~48 hours, updates from the South African Weather Service and major models will likely narrow the distribution as new observational data arrives.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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