Trader consensus centers on the 70-71°F bin for New York City’s lowest temperature on August 4, driven by official observations from the LaGuardia Airport station. Midsummer atmospheric conditions, including a persistent warm air mass and minimal nocturnal radiative cooling under typical humidity levels, produced a minimum consistent with this narrow range. Early August climatology at the site shows average lows near 70°F, with recent model guidance and surface data reinforcing limited overnight drops. While weather station measurements carry small uncertainty from instrumentation or microclimate effects, the overwhelming market-implied probability reflects verified readings and the absence of any cold front or clear-sky radiative event that would have lowered the minimum further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in NYC am 4. August?
Niedrigste Temperatur in NYC am 4. August?
70-71°F 99.0%
68-69°F 1.1%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$14,604 Vol.
$14,604 Vol.
4. Aug. 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
99%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 99.0%
68-69°F 1.1%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$14,604 Vol.
$14,604 Vol.
4. Aug. 2026
59°F or below
$469 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$409 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$810 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$1,119 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$1,334 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$2,797 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$1,445 Vol.
99%
72-73°F
$3,055 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,965 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$778 Vol.
<1%
78°F or higher
$424 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on the 70-71°F bin for New York City’s lowest temperature on August 4, driven by official observations from the LaGuardia Airport station. Midsummer atmospheric conditions, including a persistent warm air mass and minimal nocturnal radiative cooling under typical humidity levels, produced a minimum consistent with this narrow range. Early August climatology at the site shows average lows near 70°F, with recent model guidance and surface data reinforcing limited overnight drops. While weather station measurements carry small uncertainty from instrumentation or microclimate effects, the overwhelming market-implied probability reflects verified readings and the absence of any cold front or clear-sky radiative event that would have lowered the minimum further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ET
Volumen
$14,604Enddatum
4. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on the 70-71°F bin for New York City’s lowest temperature on August 4, driven by official observations from the LaGuardia Airport station. Midsummer atmospheric conditions, including a persistent warm air mass and minimal nocturnal radiative cooling under typical humidity levels, produced a minimum consistent with this narrow range. Early August climatology at the site shows average lows near 70°F, with recent model guidance and surface data reinforcing limited overnight drops. While weather station measurements carry small uncertainty from instrumentation or microclimate effects, the overwhelming market-implied probability reflects verified readings and the absence of any cold front or clear-sky radiative event that would have lowered the minimum further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$14,604Enddatum
4. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on the 70-71°F bin for New York City’s lowest temperature on August 4, driven by official observations from the LaGuardia Airport station. Midsummer atmospheric conditions, including a persistent warm air mass and minimal nocturnal radiative cooling under typical humidity levels, produced a minimum consistent with this narrow range. Early August climatology at the site shows average lows near 70°F, with recent model guidance and surface data reinforcing limited overnight drops. While weather station measurements carry small uncertainty from instrumentation or microclimate effects, the overwhelming market-implied probability reflects verified readings and the absence of any cold front or clear-sky radiative event that would have lowered the minimum further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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