Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Shanghai am 13. August?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Shanghai am 13. August?
26°C 100.0%
21°C oder weniger <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$21,023 Vol.
$21,023 Vol.
13. Aug. 2026
21°C oder weniger
Nein
22°C
Nein
23°C
Nein
24°C
Nein
25°C
Nein
26°C
Ja
27°C
Nein
28°C
Nein
29°C
Nein
30°C
Nein
31°C oder höher
Nein
26°C 100.0%
21°C oder weniger <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$21,023 Vol.
$21,023 Vol.
13. Aug. 2026
21°C oder weniger
$504 Vol.
Nein
22°C
$614 Vol.
Nein
23°C
$415 Vol.
Nein
24°C
$1,551 Vol.
Nein
25°C
$3,429 Vol.
Nein
26°C
$6,807 Vol.
Ja
27°C
$4,506 Vol.
Nein
28°C
$1,731 Vol.
Nein
29°C
$320 Vol.
Nein
30°C
$445 Vol.
Nein
31°C oder höher
$702 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$21,023Enddatum
13. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$21,023Enddatum
13. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen