Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models drives the 96.5% market-implied odds for a 20°C low in Tokyo on September 13, projecting overnight minima near 20–21°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and high humidity that limits radiative cooling. Recent stabilization after early September rainfall has produced mild, stable conditions consistent with late-summer climatology for the region, where average September lows hover around 20°C. Traders appear to discount minor model spread or urban heat-island effects that could nudge the official reading slightly higher or lower. The outcome hinges on JMA’s automated station data for the 24-hour period ending at 00:00 JST on September 14; clearer skies or an unexpected cold-air intrusion remain the primary low-probability risks that could shift the minimum below 20°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Tokio am 13. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Tokio am 13. September?
20°C 97%
19°C 5%
17°C oder darunter <1%
18°C <1%
NEU
NEU
13. Sep. 2026
17°C oder darunter
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
5%
20°C
97%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C oder höher
<1%
20°C 97%
19°C 5%
17°C oder darunter <1%
18°C <1%
NEU
NEU
13. Sep. 2026
17°C oder darunter
$158 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$252 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$453 Vol.
5%
20°C
$699 Vol.
97%
21°C
$2,924 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,917 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$867 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$232 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$195 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$85 Vol.
<1%
27°C oder höher
$138 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models drives the 96.5% market-implied odds for a 20°C low in Tokyo on September 13, projecting overnight minima near 20–21°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and high humidity that limits radiative cooling. Recent stabilization after early September rainfall has produced mild, stable conditions consistent with late-summer climatology for the region, where average September lows hover around 20°C. Traders appear to discount minor model spread or urban heat-island effects that could nudge the official reading slightly higher or lower. The outcome hinges on JMA’s automated station data for the 24-hour period ending at 00:00 JST on September 14; clearer skies or an unexpected cold-air intrusion remain the primary low-probability risks that could shift the minimum below 20°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$7,923Enddatum
13. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models drives the 96.5% market-implied odds for a 20°C low in Tokyo on September 13, projecting overnight minima near 20–21°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and high humidity that limits radiative cooling. Recent stabilization after early September rainfall has produced mild, stable conditions consistent with late-summer climatology for the region, where average September lows hover around 20°C. Traders appear to discount minor model spread or urban heat-island effects that could nudge the official reading slightly higher or lower. The outcome hinges on JMA’s automated station data for the 24-hour period ending at 00:00 JST on September 14; clearer skies or an unexpected cold-air intrusion remain the primary low-probability risks that could shift the minimum below 20°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$7,923Enddatum
13. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models drives the 96.5% market-implied odds for a 20°C low in Tokyo on September 13, projecting overnight minima near 20–21°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and high humidity that limits radiative cooling. Recent stabilization after early September rainfall has produced mild, stable conditions consistent with late-summer climatology for the region, where average September lows hover around 20°C. Traders appear to discount minor model spread or urban heat-island effects that could nudge the official reading slightly higher or lower. The outcome hinges on JMA’s automated station data for the 24-hour period ending at 00:00 JST on September 14; clearer skies or an unexpected cold-air intrusion remain the primary low-probability risks that could shift the minimum below 20°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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