Recent easing in Mexico’s headline inflation to 4.45% year-over-year in April 2026, down from 4.59% the prior month and slightly below consensus, has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.00–4.49% range for the full-year average. Core inflation also moderated to 4.26%, while Banxico’s May 7 rate cut to 6.50% and subsequent signal of a policy pause reinforced expectations that price pressures will remain contained near the upper end of the central bank’s 2–4% target. Economists surveyed by Banxico recently lifted their year-end 2026 forecast to 4.37%, reflecting persistent but decelerating food and services components amid stable labor markets. With the next CPI release and any further policy communications due shortly, these factors sustain the market-implied odds for the leading outcome while leaving room for modest upside surprises from external commodity or currency movements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4,00 % bis 4,49 % 46%
4,50 % bis 4,99 % 24%
3,50 % bis 3,99 % 16.2%
5,00 % bis 5,49 % 13.1%
$41,309 Vol.
$41,309 Vol.
8. Jan. 2027
<2,50 %
5%
2,50 % bis 2,99 %
<1%
3,00 % bis 3,49 %
7%
3,50 % bis 3,99 %
26%
4,00 % bis 4,49 %
46%
4,50 % bis 4,99 %
24%
5,00 % bis 5,49 %
13%
5,50 %+
8%
4,00 % bis 4,49 % 46%
4,50 % bis 4,99 % 24%
3,50 % bis 3,99 % 16.2%
5,00 % bis 5,49 % 13.1%
$41,309 Vol.
$41,309 Vol.
8. Jan. 2027
<2,50 %
$494 Vol.
5%
2,50 % bis 2,99 %
$4,130 Vol.
<1%
3,00 % bis 3,49 %
$25,963 Vol.
7%
3,50 % bis 3,99 %
$400 Vol.
26%
4,00 % bis 4,49 %
$503 Vol.
46%
4,50 % bis 4,99 %
$3,538 Vol.
24%
5,00 % bis 5,49 %
$1,241 Vol.
13%
5,50 %+
$5,040 Vol.
8%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent easing in Mexico’s headline inflation to 4.45% year-over-year in April 2026, down from 4.59% the prior month and slightly below consensus, has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.00–4.49% range for the full-year average. Core inflation also moderated to 4.26%, while Banxico’s May 7 rate cut to 6.50% and subsequent signal of a policy pause reinforced expectations that price pressures will remain contained near the upper end of the central bank’s 2–4% target. Economists surveyed by Banxico recently lifted their year-end 2026 forecast to 4.37%, reflecting persistent but decelerating food and services components amid stable labor markets. With the next CPI release and any further policy communications due shortly, these factors sustain the market-implied odds for the leading outcome while leaving room for modest upside surprises from external commodity or currency movements.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Markt eröffnet: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$41,309Enddatum
8. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent easing in Mexico’s headline inflation to 4.45% year-over-year in April 2026, down from 4.59% the prior month and slightly below consensus, has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.00–4.49% range for the full-year average. Core inflation also moderated to 4.26%, while Banxico’s May 7 rate cut to 6.50% and subsequent signal of a policy pause reinforced expectations that price pressures will remain contained near the upper end of the central bank’s 2–4% target. Economists surveyed by Banxico recently lifted their year-end 2026 forecast to 4.37%, reflecting persistent but decelerating food and services components amid stable labor markets. With the next CPI release and any further policy communications due shortly, these factors sustain the market-implied odds for the leading outcome while leaving room for modest upside surprises from external commodity or currency movements.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volumen
$41,309Enddatum
8. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent easing in Mexico’s headline inflation to 4.45% year-over-year in April 2026, down from 4.59% the prior month and slightly below consensus, has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.00–4.49% range for the full-year average. Core inflation also moderated to 4.26%, while Banxico’s May 7 rate cut to 6.50% and subsequent signal of a policy pause reinforced expectations that price pressures will remain contained near the upper end of the central bank’s 2–4% target. Economists surveyed by Banxico recently lifted their year-end 2026 forecast to 4.37%, reflecting persistent but decelerating food and services components amid stable labor markets. With the next CPI release and any further policy communications due shortly, these factors sustain the market-implied odds for the leading outcome while leaving room for modest upside surprises from external commodity or currency movements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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