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icon for Minimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?

Minimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?

icon for Minimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?

Minimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?

<4 Mio. km² 55%

4,2–4,4 Mio. km² 18.0%

4,0–4,2 Mio. km² 10.3%

4,4–4,6 Mio. km² 8.2%

Polymarket

$48,580 Vol.

<4 Mio. km² 55%

4,2–4,4 Mio. km² 18.0%

4,0–4,2 Mio. km² 10.3%

4,4–4,6 Mio. km² 8.2%

Polymarket

$48,580 Vol.

<4 Mio. km²

$25,113 Vol.

55%

4,0–4,2 Mio. km²

$3,431 Vol.

10%

4,2–4,4 Mio. km²

$1,313 Vol.

18%

4,4–4,6 Mio. km²

$1,381 Vol.

8%

4,6–4,8 Mio. qkm

$2,948 Vol.

6%

4,8-5 Mio. qkm

$1,199 Vol.

2%

5 Mio.+ qkm

$13,195 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent reached in mid-March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers, statistically tied with 2025 for the smallest winter peak in the 48-year satellite record, has positioned traders to favor outcomes below 4 million square kilometers for the September minimum. Persistent record-low extents through April and early May, driven by warmer-than-average ocean and air temperatures, thinner first-year ice, and an emerging El Niño pattern, accelerate melt potential under the long-term 12 percent per decade decline observed since 1979. NSIDC and NASA data confirm the ice pack entered the melt season with reduced volume and extent, increasing the likelihood of significant summer losses if atmospheric patterns favor rapid retreat. Traders monitor upcoming NSIDC updates and model runs for refinements to these probabilities through peak melt season.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$48,580
Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent reached in mid-March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers, statistically tied with 2025 for the smallest winter peak in the 48-year satellite record, has positioned traders to favor outcomes below 4 million square kilometers for the September minimum. Persistent record-low extents through April and early May, driven by warmer-than-average ocean and air temperatures, thinner first-year ice, and an emerging El Niño pattern, accelerate melt potential under the long-term 12 percent per decade decline observed since 1979. NSIDC and NASA data confirm the ice pack entered the melt season with reduced volume and extent, increasing the likelihood of significant summer losses if atmospheric patterns favor rapid retreat. Traders monitor upcoming NSIDC updates and model runs for refinements to these probabilities through peak melt season.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$48,580
Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Minimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „<4 Mio. km²" mit 56%, gefolgt von „4,2–4,4 Mio. km²" mit 18%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 56¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 56% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Minimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $48.6K generiert, seit der Markt am Nov 20, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Minimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 7 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Minimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?" ist „<4 Mio. km²" mit 56%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 56% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „4,2–4,4 Mio. km²" mit 18%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Minimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.